Volatility 101: Should Premier Polyfilm (NSE:PREMIERPOL) Shares Have Dropped 46%?

Passive investing in an index fund is a good way to ensure your own returns roughly match the overall market. While individual stocks can be big winners, plenty more fail to generate satisfactory returns. Unfortunately the Premier Polyfilm Ltd. (NSE:PREMIERPOL) share price slid 46% over twelve months. That’s disappointing when you consider the market returned 4.2%. On the other hand, the stock is actually up 2.7% over three years. There was little comfort for shareholders in the last week as the price declined a further 5.6%.

View our latest analysis for Premier Polyfilm

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it’s a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Unfortunately Premier Polyfilm reported an EPS drop of 27% for the last year. The share price decline of 46% is actually more than the EPS drop. Unsurprisingly, given the lack of EPS growth, the market seems to be more cautious about the stock.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

NSEI:PREMIERPOL Past and Future Earnings, March 29th 2019
NSEI:PREMIERPOL Past and Future Earnings, March 29th 2019

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We’d be remiss not to mention the difference between Premier Polyfilm’s total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Its history of dividend payouts mean that Premier Polyfilm’s TSR, which was a 45% drop over the last year, was not as bad as the share price return.

A Different Perspective

Over the last year, Premier Polyfilm shareholders took a loss of 45%, including dividends. In contrast the market gained about 4.2%. Of course the long term matters more than the short term, and even great stocks will sometimes have a poor year. Fortunately the longer term story is brighter, with total returns averaging about 2.7% per year over three years. The recent sell-off could be an opportunity if the business remains sound, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long-term growth trend. Before forming an opinion on Premier Polyfilm you might want to consider these 3 valuation metrics.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on IN exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.