Imagine Owning Century Enka (NSE:CENTENKA) And Wondering If The 33% Share Price Slide Is Justified

By
Simply Wall St
Published
December 17, 2019
NSEI:CENTENKA

As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But its virtually certain that sometimes you will buy stocks that fall short of the market average returns. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Century Enka Limited (NSE:CENTENKA) shareholders, since the share price is down 33% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 34%. And the ride hasn't got any smoother in recent times over the last year, with the price 33% lower in that time. The silver lining is that the stock is up 2.5% in about a week.

Check out our latest analysis for Century Enka

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Although the share price is down over three years, Century Enka actually managed to grow EPS by 7.6% per year in that time. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 17% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. It's probably worth investigating Century Enka further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

NSEI:CENTENKA Income Statement, December 18th 2019
NSEI:CENTENKA Income Statement, December 18th 2019

If you are thinking of buying or selling Century Enka stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Century Enka the TSR over the last 3 years was -28%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Century Enka shareholders are down 31% for the year (even including dividends) , but the market itself is up 4.5%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 4.8%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Century Enka better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Century Enka which any shareholder or potential investor should be aware of.

We will like Century Enka better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on IN exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.

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