Rail Vikas Nigam Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of RVNL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

RVNL (₹607.4) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (₹235.44)

Is RVNL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of RVNL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: RVNL (₹607.4) is trading above our estimate of fair value (₹235.44)

Significantly Below Fair Value: RVNL is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for RVNL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for RVNL. This is calculated by dividing RVNL's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is RVNL's n/a Ratio?
n/a	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	₹1.27t

RVNL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	6.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	54.1x
PEG Ratio	7.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does RVNL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for RVNL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	76.2x
VOLTAS Voltas	126.3x	30.2%	₹576.9b
IRB IRB Infrastructure Developers	62.5x	32.0%	₹382.6b
534309 NBCC (India)	77.8x	22.6%	₹335.4b
500510 Larsen & Toubro	38.4x	20.7%	₹5.1t
RVNL Rail Vikas Nigam	87x	11.4%	₹1.3t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: RVNL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (87x) compared to the peer average (76.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does RVNL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the IN Construction Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	20.9%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

Fetching data

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	20.9%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: RVNL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (87x) compared to the Indian Construction industry average (28.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is RVNL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

RVNL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	87x
Fair PE Ratio	58.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: RVNL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (87x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (58.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst RVNL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	₹607.40	₹416.00 -31.5%	32.0%	₹549.00	₹283.00	n/a	2
Aug ’25	₹595.50	₹268.00 -55.0%	13.1%	₹303.00	₹233.00	n/a	2
Jul ’25	₹415.00	₹268.00 -35.4%	13.1%	₹303.00	₹233.00	n/a	2
Jun ’25	₹381.70	₹268.00 -29.8%	13.1%	₹303.00	₹233.00	n/a	2
May ’25	₹286.40	₹240.50 -16.0%	3.1%	₹248.00	₹233.00	n/a	2
Apr ’25	₹261.75	₹240.50 -8.1%	3.1%	₹248.00	₹233.00	n/a	2
Mar ’25	₹246.20	₹240.50 -2.3%	3.1%	₹248.00	₹233.00	n/a	2
Feb ’25	₹297.55	₹164.00 -44.9%	9.1%	₹179.00	₹149.00	n/a	2
Jan ’25	₹182.00	₹154.50 -15.1%	3.6%	₹160.00	₹149.00	n/a	2
Dec ’24	₹165.00	₹146.33 -11.3%	8.5%	₹160.00	₹130.00	n/a	3
Nov ’24	₹153.00	₹145.00 -5.2%	10.3%	₹160.00	₹130.00	n/a	2
May ’24	₹107.55	₹61.00 -43.3%	31.1%	₹80.00	₹42.00	₹286.40	2
Apr ’24	₹68.60	₹61.00 -11.1%	31.1%	₹80.00	₹42.00	₹261.75	2
Mar ’24	₹58.50	₹61.00 +4.3%	31.1%	₹80.00	₹42.00	₹246.20	2
Feb ’24	₹72.65	₹61.00 -16.0%	31.1%	₹80.00	₹42.00	₹297.55	2
Jan ’24	₹68.25	₹61.00 -10.6%	31.1%	₹80.00	₹42.00	₹182.00	2
Dec ’23	₹75.05	₹61.00 -18.7%	31.1%	₹80.00	₹42.00	₹165.00	2
Nov ’23	₹40.20	₹41.50 +3.2%	1.2%	₹42.00	₹41.00	₹153.00	2
Oct ’23	₹33.70	₹41.50 +23.1%	1.2%	₹42.00	₹41.00	₹169.45	2
Sep ’23	₹32.95	₹41.50 +25.9%	1.2%	₹42.00	₹41.00	₹138.30	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.