Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital. It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Inox Wind Limited (NSE:INOXWIND) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
How Much Debt Does Inox Wind Carry?
As you can see below, Inox Wind had ₹10.9b of debt, at March 2019, which is about the same the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. On the flip side, it has ₹2.28b in cash leading to net debt of about ₹8.64b.
How Strong Is Inox Wind's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Inox Wind had liabilities of ₹23.8b due within 12 months, and liabilities of ₹4.00b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had ₹2.28b in cash and ₹17.0b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling ₹8.47b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's ₹7.72b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Inox Wind shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (8.2), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 0.28 times the interest expense. The debt burden here is substantial. One redeeming factor for Inox Wind is that it turned last year's EBIT loss into a gain of ₹493m, over the last twelve months. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Inox Wind's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it is important to check how much of its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) converts to actual free cash flow. In the last year, Inox Wind created free cash flow amounting to 19% of its EBIT, an uninspiring performance. For us, cash conversion that low sparks a little paranoia about is ability to extinguish debt.
To be frank both Inox Wind's net debt to EBITDA and its track record of covering its interest expense with its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least its EBIT growth rate is not so bad. We're quite clear that we consider Inox Wind to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. Even though Inox Wind lost money on the bottom line, its positive EBIT suggests the business itself has potential. So you might want to check outhow earnings have been trending over the last few years.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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