Cummins India Limited's (NSE:CUMMINSIND) Stock Is Going Strong: Is the Market Following Fundamentals?

Most readers would already be aware that Cummins India's (NSE:CUMMINSIND) stock increased significantly by 12% over the past month. Given the company's impressive performance, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely as a company's financial health over the long-term usually dictates market outcomes. In this article, we decided to focus on Cummins India's ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

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How Is ROE Calculated?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Cummins India is:

29% = ₹20b ÷ ₹70b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each ₹1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made ₹0.29 in profit.

View our latest analysis for Cummins India

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Cummins India's Earnings Growth And 29% ROE

First thing first, we like that Cummins India has an impressive ROE. Secondly, even when compared to the industry average of 15% the company's ROE is quite impressive. As a result, Cummins India's exceptional 26% net income growth seen over the past five years, doesn't come as a surprise.

As a next step, we compared Cummins India's net income growth with the industry and found that the company has a similar growth figure when compared with the industry average growth rate of 26% in the same period.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Cummins India is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Cummins India Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Cummins India's significant three-year median payout ratio of 56% (where it is retaining only 44% of its income) suggests that the company has been able to achieve a high growth in earnings despite returning most of its income to shareholders.

Additionally, Cummins India has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 56%. However, Cummins India's future ROE is expected to decline to 23% despite there being not much change anticipated in the company's payout ratio.

Conclusion

In total, we are pretty happy with Cummins India's performance. In particular, its high ROE is quite noteworthy and also the probable explanation behind its considerable earnings growth. Yet, the company is retaining a small portion of its profits. Which means that the company has been able to grow its earnings in spite of it, so that's not too bad. Having said that, the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down, as forecasted in the current analyst estimates. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.