Stock Analysis

What Type Of Returns Would Air China's(HKG:753) Shareholders Have Earned If They Purchased Their SharesThree Years Ago?

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SEHK:753
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As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But its virtually certain that sometimes you will buy stocks that fall short of the market average returns. We regret to report that long term Air China Limited (HKG:753) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 31% in three years, versus a market decline of about 1.9%. Contrary to the longer term story, the last month has been good for stockholders, with a share price gain of 8.4%.

Check out our latest analysis for Air China

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Over the three years that the share price declined, Air China's earnings per share (EPS) dropped significantly, falling to a loss. Due to the loss, it's not easy to use EPS as a reliable guide to the business. However, we can say we'd expect to see a falling share price in this scenario.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
SEHK:753 Earnings Per Share Growth December 16th 2020

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Air China's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Air China the TSR over the last 3 years was -28%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Air China shareholders are down 19% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 6.1%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 1.3%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Air China you should be aware of.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

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