It is a pleasure to report that the China All Access (Holdings) Limited (HKG:633) is up 49% in the last quarter. But will that repair the damage for the weary investors who have owned this stock as it declined over half a decade? Probably not. Like a ship taking on water, the share price has sunk 85% in that time. While the recent increase might be a green shoot, we’re certainly hesitant to rejoice. The real question is whether the business can leave its past behind and improve itself over the years ahead.
We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don’t have to lose the lesson.
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
China All Access (Holdings) became profitable within the last five years. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. Other metrics may better explain the share price move.
We note that the dividend has fallen in the last five years, so that may have contributed to the share price decline. On top of that, revenue has declined by 10% per year over the half decade; that could be a red flag for some investors.
The chart below shows how revenue and earnings have changed with time, (if you click on the chart you can see the actual values).
This free interactive report on China All Access (Holdings)’s balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, China All Access (Holdings)’s TSR for the last 5 years was -82%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there’s no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 3.7% in the twelve months, China All Access (Holdings) shareholders did even worse, losing 72% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there’s a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year’s performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 29% over the last half decade. We realise that Buffett has said investors should ‘buy when there is blood on the streets’, but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality businesses. Before spending more time on China All Access (Holdings) it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.
Of course China All Access (Holdings) may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.