Should You Be Concerned About China Aerospace International Holdings Limited’s (HKG:31) Historical Volatility?

If you own shares in China Aerospace International Holdings Limited (HKG:31) then it’s worth thinking about how it contributes to the volatility of your portfolio, overall. In finance, Beta is a measure of volatility. Modern finance theory considers volatility to be a measure of risk, and there are two main types of price volatility. The first category is company specific volatility. This can be dealt with by limiting your exposure to any particular stock. The other type, which cannot be diversified away, is the volatility of the entire market. Every stock in the market is exposed to this volatility, which is linked to the fact that stocks prices are correlated in an efficient market.

Some stocks are more sensitive to general market forces than others. Some investors use beta as a measure of how much a certain stock is impacted by market risk (volatility). While we should keep in mind that Warren Buffett has cautioned that ‘Volatility is far from synonymous with risk’, beta is still a useful factor to consider. To make good use of it you must first know that the beta of the overall market is one. A stock with a beta below one is either less volatile than the market, or more volatile but not corellated with the overall market. In comparison a stock with a beta of over one tends to be move in a similar direction to the market in the long term, but with greater changes in price.

Check out our latest analysis for China Aerospace International Holdings

What we can learn from 31’s beta value

Zooming in on China Aerospace International Holdings, we see it has a five year beta of 1.25. This is above 1, so historically its share price has been influenced by the broader volatility of the stock market. Based on this history, investors should be aware that China Aerospace International Holdings are likely to rise strongly in times of greed, but sell off in times of fear. Many would argue that beta is useful in position sizing, but fundamental metrics such as revenue and earnings are more important overall. You can see China Aerospace International Holdings’s revenue and earnings in the image below.

SEHK:31 Income Statement, April 1st 2019
SEHK:31 Income Statement, April 1st 2019

Does 31’s size influence the expected beta?

China Aerospace International Holdings is a noticeably small company, with a market capitalisation of HK$1.8b. Most companies this size are not always actively traded. It takes less money to influence the share price of a very small company. This may explain the excess volatility implied by this beta value.

What this means for you:

Since China Aerospace International Holdings tends to moves up when the market is going up, and down when it’s going down, potential investors may wish to reflect on the overall market, when considering the stock. This article aims to educate investors about beta values, but it’s well worth looking at important company-specific fundamentals such as China Aerospace International Holdings’s financial health and performance track record. I highly recommend you dive deeper by considering the following:

  1. Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for 31’s future growth? Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for 31’s outlook.
  2. Past Track Record: Has 31 been consistently performing well irrespective of the ups and downs in the market? Go into more detail in the past performance analysis and take a look at the free visual representations of 31’s historicals for more clarity.
  3. Other Interesting Stocks: It’s worth checking to see how 31 measures up against other companies on valuation. You could start with this free list of prospective options.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.