ASM Pacific Technology Limited's (HKG:522) Financial Prospects Don't Look Very Positive: Could It Mean A Stock Price Drop In The Future?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
April 04, 2021
SEHK:522

Most readers would already know that ASM Pacific Technology's (HKG:522) stock increased by 3.1% over the past month. Given that the markets usually pay for the long-term financial health of a company, we wonder if the current momentum in the share price will keep up, given that the company's financials don't look very promising. In this article, we decided to focus on ASM Pacific Technology's ROE.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

View our latest analysis for ASM Pacific Technology

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for ASM Pacific Technology is:

4.8% = HK$637m ÷ HK$13b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2020).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. That means that for every HK$1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated HK$0.05 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

A Side By Side comparison of ASM Pacific Technology's Earnings Growth And 4.8% ROE

When you first look at it, ASM Pacific Technology's ROE doesn't look that attractive. A quick further study shows that the company's ROE doesn't compare favorably to the industry average of 8.4% either. Therefore, it might not be wrong to say that the five year net income decline of 9.7% seen by ASM Pacific Technology was probably the result of it having a lower ROE. We believe that there also might be other aspects that are negatively influencing the company's earnings prospects. Such as - low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.

That being said, we compared ASM Pacific Technology's performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 12% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
SEHK:522 Past Earnings Growth April 5th 2021

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if ASM Pacific Technology is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is ASM Pacific Technology Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

ASM Pacific Technology's declining earnings is not surprising given how the company is spending most of its profits in paying dividends, judging by its three-year median payout ratio of 69% (or a retention ratio of 31%). The business is only left with a small pool of capital to reinvest - A vicious cycle that doesn't benefit the company in the long-run. You can see the 3 risks we have identified for ASM Pacific Technology by visiting our risks dashboard for free on our platform here.

In addition, ASM Pacific Technology has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 46% over the next three years. The fact that the company's ROE is expected to rise to 15% over the same period is explained by the drop in the payout ratio.

Summary

On the whole, ASM Pacific Technology's performance is quite a big let-down. Because the company is not reinvesting much into the business, and given the low ROE, it's not surprising to see the lack or absence of growth in its earnings. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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