Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited (HKG:1929) just released its latest half-yearly report and things are not looking great. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at HK$39b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 10%, coming in at just HK$0.26 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Following the latest results, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group's 20 analysts are now forecasting revenues of HK$92.8b in 2026. This would be a reasonable 4.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 40% to HK$0.84. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of HK$93.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of HK$0.84 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of HK$17.70, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group at HK$21.40 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$12.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 8.2% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.8% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 16% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$17.70, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.