CIFI Holdings (Group) (SHSC:884) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of 884 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

884 (HK$3.11) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$11.69)

884 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	6/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	3/6

884 Stock Overview

CIFI Holdings (Group) Co. Ltd., an investment holding company, invests in, develops, and manages properties in the People’s Republic of China.

Rewards

Trading at 73.4% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 4.78% per year

Risk Analysis

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

Unstable dividend track record

Volatile share price over the past 3 months

Profit margins (7.1%) are lower than last year (11.2%)

+ 2 more risks

CIFI Holdings (Group) Competitors

Hopson Development Holdings

SEHK:754

HK$28.8b

China Jinmao Holdings Group

SEHK:817

HK$25.3b

Yuexiu Property

SEHK:123

HK$30.6b

Seazen Group

SEHK:1030

HK$19.6b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for CIFI Holdings (Group)
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	HK$3.11
52 Week High	HK$6.06
52 Week Low	HK$2.22
Beta	0.98
1 Month Change	-8.63%
3 Month Change	-26.32%
1 Year Change	-44.23%
3 Year Change	-42.24%
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	-33.17%

Shareholder Returns

	884	HK Real Estate	HK Market
7D	-16.6%	-3.5%	-3.0%
1Y	-44.2%	-33.1%	-21.3%

Return vs Industry: 884 underperformed the Hong Kong Real Estate industry which returned -33.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 884 underperformed the Hong Kong Market which returned -21.3% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 884's price volatile compared to industry and market?
884 volatility
884 Average Weekly Movement	10.2%
Real Estate Industry Average Movement	6.0%
Market Average Movement	6.8%
10% most volatile stocks in HK Market	13.6%
10% least volatile stocks in HK Market	3.3%

Stable Share Price: 884 is more volatile than 75% of Hong Kong stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 10% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 884's weekly volatility (10%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of Hong Kong stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2000	25,532	Feng Lin	https://www.cifi.com.cn

CIFI Holdings (Group) Co. Ltd., an investment holding company, invests in, develops, and manages properties in the People’s Republic of China. The company operates through Sales of Properties and Other Property Related Services; Property Investment; and Property Management and Other Services segments. It develops and sells office and commercial premises, and residential properties; leases investment properties; and offers project management and other property related services.

CIFI Holdings (Group) Fundamentals Summary

How do CIFI Holdings (Group)'s earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
884 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	CN¥24.07b
Earnings (TTM)	CN¥7.61b
Revenue (TTM)	CN¥107.83b

3.2x

P/E Ratio

0.2x

P/S Ratio

Is 884 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
884 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	CN¥107.83b
Cost of Revenue	CN¥87.04b
Gross Profit	CN¥20.80b
Other Expenses	CN¥13.18b
Earnings	CN¥7.61b

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.84
Gross Margin	19.29%
Net Profit Margin	7.06%
Debt/Equity Ratio	129.9%

How did 884 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

5.7%

Current Dividend Yield

17%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 884 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 884?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 884. This is calculated by dividing 884's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 884's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CN¥24.07b

884 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	12.5x
PEG Ratio	0.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 884's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

884 PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for 884 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	4.1x
754 Hopson Development Holdings	2.9x	n/a	HK$28.8b
817 China Jinmao Holdings Group	4.6x	12.5%	HK$25.3b
123 Yuexiu Property	7.2x	11.9%	HK$30.6b
1030 Seazen Group	1.9x	-6.4%	HK$19.6b
884 CIFI Holdings (Group)	3.2x	4.8%	HK$28.1b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 884 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.2x) compared to the peer average (4.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 884's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Real Estate Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 884 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.2x) compared to the Hong Kong Real Estate industry average (6.2x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 884's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

884 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	3.2x
Fair PE Ratio	4.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 884 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.7x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 884 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 884 (HK$3.11) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$11.69)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 884 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: 884 is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.7x)

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Future Growth

How is CIFI Holdings (Group) forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 23 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

4.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 884's forecast earnings growth (4.8% per year) is above the savings rate (1.6%).

Earnings vs Market: 884's earnings (4.8% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market (16.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 884's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: 884's revenue (5.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market (10.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 884's revenue (5.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 884's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (14%).

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Past Performance

How has CIFI Holdings (Group) performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

15.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 884 has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 884's current net profit margins (7.1%) are lower than last year (11.2%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 884's earnings have grown by 15.9% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 884's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: 884 had negative earnings growth (-5.2%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Real Estate industry average (15.8%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: 884's Return on Equity (11.5%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is CIFI Holdings (Group)'s financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 884's short term assets (CN¥351.5B) exceed its short term liabilities (CN¥223.7B).

Long Term Liabilities: 884's short term assets (CN¥351.5B) exceed its long term liabilities (CN¥101.6B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 884's net debt to equity ratio (84%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: 884's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 170.7% to 129.9% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 884's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (3.5%).

Interest Coverage: 884 earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is CIFI Holdings (Group) current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

5.67%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: 884's dividend (5.67%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Hong Kong market (2.76%).

High Dividend: 884's dividend (5.67%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Hong Kong market (7.92%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: 884 has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile.

Growing Dividend: 884's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 9 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (17.1%), 884's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonably low cash payout ratio (30%), 884's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

9.8yrs

Average board tenure

CEO

Feng Lin (47 yo)

no data

Tenure

CN¥6,603,000

Compensation

Mr. Feng Lin is the Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer of CIFI Holdings (Group) Co. Ltd. He serves as Non-Executive Deputy Chairman of the Board at CIFI Ever Sunshine Services Group Limited (fo...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Feng's total compensation ($USD982.75K) is above average for companies of similar size in the Hong Kong market ($USD473.63K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Feng's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Board Members

Experienced Board: 884's board of directors are considered experienced (9.8 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: 884 insiders have sold more shares than they have bought in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 5.8%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/12 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/11 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31