While shareholders of Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group (HKG:6989) are in the red over the last year, underlying earnings have actually grown

By
Simply Wall St
Published
March 21, 2022
SEHK:6989
Source: Shutterstock

Investing in stocks comes with the risk that the share price will fall. And unfortunately for Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group Limited (HKG:6989) shareholders, the stock is a lot lower today than it was a year ago. The share price is down a hefty 55% in that time. Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group may have better days ahead, of course; we've only looked at a one year period. Unfortunately the share price momentum is still quite negative, with prices down 20% in thirty days. We do note, however, that the broader market is down 11% in that period, and this may have weighed on the share price.

Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last year, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.

View our latest analysis for Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the unfortunate twelve months during which the Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group share price fell, it actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 42%. It's quite possible that growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

It's fair to say that the share price does not seem to be reflecting the EPS growth. But we might find some different metrics explain the share price movements better.

We don't see any weakness in the Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group's dividend so the steady payout can't really explain the share price drop. The revenue trend doesn't seem to explain why the share price is down. Unless, of course, the market was expecting a revenue uptick.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SEHK:6989 Earnings and Revenue Growth March 21st 2022

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group the TSR over the last 1 year was -53%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

We doubt Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group shareholders are happy with the loss of 53% over twelve months (even including dividends). That falls short of the market, which lost 21%. That's disappointing, but it's worth keeping in mind that the market-wide selling wouldn't have helped. The share price decline has continued throughout the most recent three months, down 11%, suggesting an absence of enthusiasm from investors. Given the relatively short history of this stock, we'd remain pretty wary until we see some strong business performance. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

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