Hopson Development Holdings Limited's (HKG:754) 28% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Revenues

Those holding Hopson Development Holdings Limited (HKG:754) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 28% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 20% over that time.

Even after such a large jump in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Hopson Development Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.4x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Real Estate industry in Hong Kong, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.6x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

See our latest analysis for Hopson Development Holdings

What Does Hopson Development Holdings' Recent Performance Look Like?

The revenue growth achieved at Hopson Development Holdings over the last year would be more than acceptable for most companies. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think this respectable revenue growth might not be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Hopson Development Holdings will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Hopson Development Holdings would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 13%. Still, lamentably revenue has fallen 17% in aggregate from three years ago, which is disappointing. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 4.6% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Hopson Development Holdings' P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

Hopson Development Holdings appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We find it unexpected that Hopson Development Holdings trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Hopson Development Holdings (2 are a bit concerning!) that you need to take into consideration.

If you're unsure about the strength of Hopson Development Holdings' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.