Did Beijing Tong Ren Tang Chinese Medicine’s (HKG:3613) Share Price Deserve to Gain 80%?

By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. Just take a look at Beijing Tong Ren Tang Chinese Medicine Company Limited (HKG:3613), which is up 80%, over three years, soundly beating the market return of 31% (not including dividends). On the other hand, the returns haven’t been quite so good recently, with shareholders up just 3.3%, including dividends.

See our latest analysis for Beijing Tong Ren Tang Chinese Medicine

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During three years of share price growth, Beijing Tong Ren Tang Chinese Medicine achieved compound earnings per share growth of 18% per year. We don’t think it is entirely coincidental that the EPS growth is reasonably close to the 22% average annual increase in the share price. This suggests that sentiment and expectations have not changed drastically. Au contraire, the share price change has arguably mimicked the EPS growth.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

SEHK:3613 Past and Future Earnings, March 23rd 2019
SEHK:3613 Past and Future Earnings, March 23rd 2019

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Beijing Tong Ren Tang Chinese Medicine the TSR over the last 3 years was 88%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there’s no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It’s good to see that Beijing Tong Ren Tang Chinese Medicine has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 3.3% in the last twelve months. That’s including the dividend. However, the TSR over five years, coming in at 8.5% per year, is even more impressive. The pessimistic view would be that be that the stock has its best days behind it, but on the other hand the price might simply be moderating while the business itself continues to execute. It is all well and good that insiders have been buying shares, but we suggest you check here to see what price insiders were buying at.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.