Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Beijing Tong Ren Tang Chinese Medicine Company Limited (HKG:3613) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today’s value. This is done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company’s value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We’re using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company’s last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today’s dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
|Levered FCF (HK$, Millions)||HK$594.2m||HK$633.4m||HK$666.4m||HK$694.8m||HK$719.6m||HK$741.9m||HK$762.5m||HK$781.9m||HK$800.5m||HK$818.7m|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Est @ 8.56%||Est @ 6.59%||Est @ 5.21%||Est @ 4.25%||Est @ 3.58%||Est @ 3.1%||Est @ 2.77%||Est @ 2.54%||Est @ 2.38%||Est @ 2.27%|
|Present Value (HK$, Millions) Discounted @ 7.3%||HK$554||HK$550||HK$539||HK$524||HK$505||HK$486||HK$465||HK$444||HK$424||HK$404|
(“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = HK$4.9b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 2.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today’s value at a cost of equity of 7.3%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2019 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = HK$819m× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ 7.3%– 2.0%) = HK$16b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= HK$16b÷ ( 1 + 7.3%)10= HK$7.7b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is HK$13b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of HK$11.6, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 23% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company’s future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at Beijing Tong Ren Tang Chinese Medicine as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 7.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?” If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For Beijing Tong Ren Tang Chinese Medicine, I’ve put together three pertinent aspects you should look at:
- Financial Health: Does 3613 have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does 3613’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of 3613? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SEHK every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.