BBMG Corporation (HKG:2009) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 17% in the last quarter. But that is minimal compensation for the share price under-performance over the last year. In fact the stock is down 19% in the last year, well below the market return.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company’s share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Even though the BBMG share price is down over the year, its EPS actually improved. It’s quite possible that growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past. It’s surprising to see the share price fall so much, despite the improved EPS. So it’s well worth checking out some other metrics, too.
With a low yield of 1.9% we doubt that the dividend influences the share price much. BBMG managed to grow revenue over the last year, which is usually a real positive. Since the fundamental metrics don’t readily explain the share price drop, there might be an opportunity if the market has overreacted.
You can see how revenue and earnings have changed over time in the image below, (click on the chart to see cashflow).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. You can see what analysts are predicting for BBMG in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
Investors should note that there’s a difference between BBMG’s total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we’ve covered above. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Dividends have been really beneficial for BBMG shareholders, and that cash payout explains why its total shareholder loss of 17%, over the last year, isn’t as bad as the share price return.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that BBMG shareholders are down 17% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that’s worse than the broader market decline of 4.0%. Having said that, it’s inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, last year’s performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 1.4% over the last half decade. We realise that Buffett has said investors should ‘buy when there is blood on the streets’, but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality businesses. If you want to research this stock further, the data on insider buying is an obvious place to start. You can click here to see who has been buying shares – and the price they paid.
There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.