Does the January share price for Zhaojin Mining Industry Company Limited (HKG:1818) reflect it’s really worth? Today, I will calculate the stock’s intrinsic value by estimating the company’s future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. I will be using the Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) model. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the basis for my calcs can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. If you are reading this and its not January 2019 then I highly recommend you check out the latest calculation for Zhaojin Mining Industry by following the link below.
See our latest analysis for Zhaojin Mining Industry
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What’s the value?
I use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of varying growth rates for the company’s cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a more stable growth phase. To start off with we need to estimate the next five years of cash flows. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. I then discount the sum of these cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate.
5-year cash flow forecast
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥806.25 | CN¥1.44k | CN¥1.43k | CN¥1.42k | CN¥1.41k |
Source | Analyst x4 | Analyst x2 | Est @ -0.71% | Est @ -0.71% | Est @ -0.71% |
Present Value Discounted @ 9.41% | CN¥736.91 | CN¥1.20k | CN¥1.09k | CN¥990.03 | CN¥898.45 |
Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= CN¥4.9b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 5-year period we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of the GDP. In this case I have used the 10-year government bond rate (2.2%). In the same way as with the 5-year ‘growth’ period, we discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 9.4%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF_{2023} × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥1.4b × (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (9.4% – 2.2%) = CN¥20b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)^{5} = CN¥20b ÷ ( 1 + 9.4%)^{5} = CN¥13b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next five years and the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥18b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. If the stock is an depositary receipt (represents a specified number of shares in a foreign corporation) or ADR then we use the equivalent number. This results in an intrinsic value of HK$6.26. Relative to the current share price of HK$7.76, the stock is fair value, maybe slightly overvalued at the time of writing.
Important assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don’t agree with my result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. Because we are looking at Zhaojin Mining Industry as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 9.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.924. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For 1818, I’ve compiled three essential aspects you should further examine:
- Financial Health: Does 1818 have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does 1818’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of 1818? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St does a DCF calculation for every HK stock every 6 hours, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com.