Is Lanzhou Zhuangyuan Pasture (HKG:1533) A Risky Investment?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
March 18, 2022
SEHK:1533
Source: Shutterstock

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Lanzhou Zhuangyuan Pasture Co., Ltd. (HKG:1533) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Lanzhou Zhuangyuan Pasture

What Is Lanzhou Zhuangyuan Pasture's Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Lanzhou Zhuangyuan Pasture had debt of CN¥622.5m at the end of September 2021, a reduction from CN¥724.8m over a year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥357.5m, its net debt is less, at about CN¥265.0m.

debt-equity-history-analysis
SEHK:1533 Debt to Equity History March 18th 2022

A Look At Lanzhou Zhuangyuan Pasture's Liabilities

The latest balance sheet data shows that Lanzhou Zhuangyuan Pasture had liabilities of CN¥621.0m due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥454.9m falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥357.5m as well as receivables valued at CN¥46.3m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥672.1m.

Lanzhou Zhuangyuan Pasture has a market capitalization of CN¥2.80b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Lanzhou Zhuangyuan Pasture has net debt worth 1.6 times EBITDA, which isn't too much, but its interest cover looks a bit on the low side, with EBIT at only 3.7 times the interest expense. In large part that's due to the company's significant depreciation and amortisation charges, which arguably mean its EBITDA is a very generous measure of earnings, and its debt may be more of a burden than it first appears. Sadly, Lanzhou Zhuangyuan Pasture's EBIT actually dropped 3.1% in the last year. If earnings continue on that decline then managing that debt will be difficult like delivering hot soup on a unicycle. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Lanzhou Zhuangyuan Pasture will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Lanzhou Zhuangyuan Pasture saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.

Our View

We'd go so far as to say Lanzhou Zhuangyuan Pasture's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was disappointing. But at least it's pretty decent at managing its debt, based on its EBITDA,; that's encouraging. Once we consider all the factors above, together, it seems to us that Lanzhou Zhuangyuan Pasture's debt is making it a bit risky. Some people like that sort of risk, but we're mindful of the potential pitfalls, so we'd probably prefer it carry less debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Lanzhou Zhuangyuan Pasture that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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