Estimating The Fair Value Of Feishang Anthracite Resources Limited (HKG:1738)

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Feishang Anthracite Resources is HK$0.21 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Feishang Anthracite Resources' HK$0.17 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
• Feishang Anthracite Resources' peers seem to be trading at a higher discount to fair value based onthe industry average of 55%

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Feishang Anthracite Resources Limited (HKG:1738) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Feishang Anthracite Resources

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥47.0m	CN¥36.9m	CN¥31.6m	CN¥28.6m	CN¥27.0m	CN¥26.0m	CN¥25.6m	CN¥25.5m	CN¥25.6m	CN¥25.8m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ -31.72%	Est @ -21.50%	Est @ -14.35%	Est @ -9.34%	Est @ -5.84%	Est @ -3.38%	Est @ -1.67%	Est @ -0.46%	Est @ 0.38%	Est @ 0.97%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 12%	CN¥41.9	CN¥29.4	CN¥22.4	CN¥18.2	CN¥15.3	CN¥13.2	CN¥11.6	CN¥10.3	CN¥9.2	CN¥8.3

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥180m

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 12%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥26m× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (12%– 2.3%) = CN¥273m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥273m÷ ( 1 + 12%)¹⁰= CN¥87m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥267m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$0.2, the company appears about fair value at a 19% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Feishang Anthracite Resources as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 12%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Feishang Anthracite Resources, there are three additional aspects you should consider:

1. Risks: We feel that you should assess the 4 warning signs for Feishang Anthracite Resources (3 can't be ignored!) we've flagged before making an investment in the company.
2. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SEHK every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.