If You Had Bought Value Convergence Holdings Stock A Year Ago, You’d Be Sitting On A 70% Loss, Today

Value Convergence Holdings Limited (HKG:821) shareholders will doubtless be very grateful to see the share price up 40% in the last week. But that doesn’t change the fact that the returns over the last year have been stomach churning. To wit, the stock has dropped 70% over the last year. Arguably, the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. The bigger issue is whether the company can sustain the momentum in the long term.

View our latest analysis for Value Convergence Holdings

Value Convergence Holdings hasn’t yet reported any revenue yet, so it’s as much a business idea as a business. You have to wonder why venture capitalists aren’t funding it. So it seems shareholders are too busy dreaming about the progress to come than dwelling on the current (lack of) revenue. It seems likely some shareholders believe that Value Convergence Holdings will significantly advance the business plan before too long.

As a general rule, if a company doesn’t have much revenue, and it loses money, then it is a high risk investment. There is almost always a chance they will need to raise more capital, and their progress – and share price – will dictate how dilutive that is to current holders. While some such companies do very well over the long term, others become hyped up by promoters before eventually falling back down to earth, and going bankrupt (or being recapitalized). It certainly is a dangerous place to invest, as Value Convergence Holdings investors might realise.

Value Convergence Holdings had net cash of just HK$65m when it last reported (June 2018). So if it has not already moved to replenish reserves, we think the near-term chances of a capital raising event are pretty high. That probably explains why the share price is down 70% in the last year. You can see in the image below, how Value Convergence Holdings’s cash and debt levels have changed over time (click to see the values).

SEHK:821 Historical Debt, March 1st 2019
SEHK:821 Historical Debt, March 1st 2019

It can be extremely risky to invest in a company that doesn’t even have revenue. There’s no way to know its value easily. Would it bother you if insiders were selling the stock? I would feel more nervous about the company if that were so. It costs nothing but a moment of your time to see if we are picking up on any insider selling.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 6.2% in the twelve months, Value Convergence Holdings shareholders did even worse, losing 70%. Having said that, it’s inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year’s performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 11% per year over five years. We realise that Buffett has said investors should ‘buy when there is blood on the streets’, but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality businesses. If you want to research this stock further, the data on insider buying is an obvious place to start. You can click here to see who has been buying shares – and the price they paid.

Value Convergence Holdings is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.