Shareholders in Orient Victory Travel Group (HKG:265) have lost 79%, as stock drops 13% this past week

By
Simply Wall St
Published
March 14, 2022
SEHK:265
Source: Shutterstock

As every investor would know, not every swing hits the sweet spot. But really big losses can really drag down an overall portfolio. So consider, for a moment, the misfortune of Orient Victory Travel Group Company Limited (HKG:265) investors who have held the stock for three years as it declined a whopping 79%. That might cause some serious doubts about the merits of the initial decision to buy the stock, to put it mildly. And the ride hasn't got any smoother in recent times over the last year, with the price 37% lower in that time. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 23% in the last 90 days. Of course, this share price action may well have been influenced by the 11% decline in the broader market, throughout the period.

Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.

Check out our latest analysis for Orient Victory Travel Group

Orient Victory Travel Group wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.

Over the last three years, Orient Victory Travel Group's revenue dropped 6.5% per year. That is not a good result. The share price fall of 21% (per year, over three years) is a stern reminder that money-losing companies are expected to grow revenue. We're generally averse to companies with declining revenues, but we're not alone in that. There's no more than a snowball's chance in hell that share price will head back to its old highs, in the short term.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SEHK:265 Earnings and Revenue Growth March 14th 2022

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Orient Victory Travel Group shareholders are down 37% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 22%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 11% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Orient Victory Travel Group , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

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