Earnings Miss: Swire Pacific Limited Missed EPS By 51% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

There's been a notable change in appetite for Swire Pacific Limited (HKG:19) shares in the week since its yearly report, with the stock down 12% to HK$60.95. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of HK$82b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 51% to hit HK$3.06 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Swire Pacific's eight analysts is for revenues of HK$86.1b in 2025. This would reflect a satisfactory 5.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 135% to HK$7.47. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of HK$85.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of HK$7.48 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Swire Pacific

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of HK$74.94, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Swire Pacific at HK$85.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$59.90. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Swire Pacific's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 5.0% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 1.6% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 1.5% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Swire Pacific to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$74.94, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Swire Pacific. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Swire Pacific analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Swire Pacific you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.