Does the April share price for Haitian International Holdings Limited (HKG:1882) reflect what it’s really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock’s intrinsic value by taking the foreast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today’s value. This is done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
We generally believe that a company’s value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Is Haitian International Holdings fairly valued?
We’re using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today’s dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
|Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)||CN¥1.44b||CN¥1.50b||CN¥1.64b||CN¥1.55b||CN¥1.49b||CN¥1.46b||CN¥1.45b||CN¥1.45b||CN¥1.45b||CN¥1.46b|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Analyst x3||Analyst x3||Analyst x3||Est @ -5.58%||Est @ -3.44%||Est @ -1.94%||Est @ -0.89%||Est @ -0.16%||Est @ 0.35%||Est @ 0.71%|
|Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 7.6%||CN¥1.3k||CN¥1.3k||CN¥1.3k||CN¥1.2k||CN¥1.0k||CN¥943||CN¥868||CN¥805||CN¥751||CN¥703|
(“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥10b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 1.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today’s value at a cost of equity of 7.6%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥1.5b× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ 7.6%– 1.6%) = CN¥25b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥25b÷ ( 1 + 7.6%)10= CN¥12b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥22b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$14.0, the company appears about fair value at a 7.3% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company’s future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at Haitian International Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 7.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.999. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?” If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Haitian International Holdings, We’ve put together three relevant factors you should look at:
- Risks: You should be aware of the 2 warning signs for Haitian International Holdings we’ve uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
- Future Earnings: How does 1882’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SEHK every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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