We Think You Should Be Aware Of Some Concerning Factors In P.G. Nikas' (ATH:NIKAS) Earnings

Simply Wall St
October 05, 2021
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P.G. Nikas S.A.'s (ATH:NIKAS) healthy profit numbers didn't contain any surprises for investors. However the statutory profit number doesn't tell the whole story, and we have found some factors which might be of concern to shareholders.

View our latest analysis for P.G. Nikas

ATSE:NIKAS Earnings and Revenue History October 6th 2021

A Closer Look At P.G. Nikas' Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

For the year to June 2021, P.G. Nikas had an accrual ratio of 0.27. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, which is hardly a good thing. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of €3.8m despite its profit of €955.1k, mentioned above. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of €3.8m, this year, indicates high risk. Unfortunately for shareholders, the company has also been issuing new shares, diluting their share of future earnings.

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of P.G. Nikas.

One essential aspect of assessing earnings quality is to look at how much a company is diluting shareholders. In fact, P.G. Nikas increased the number of shares on issue by 33% over the last twelve months by issuing new shares. As a result, its net income is now split between a greater number of shares. Per share metrics like EPS help us understand how much actual shareholders are benefitting from the company's profits, while the net income level gives us a better view of the company's absolute size. Check out P.G. Nikas' historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.

A Look At The Impact Of P.G. Nikas' Dilution on Its Earnings Per Share (EPS).

P.G. Nikas was losing money three years ago. And even focusing only on the last twelve months, we don't have a meaningful growth rate because it made a loss a year ago, too. What we do know is that while it's great to see a profit over the last twelve months, that profit would have been better, on a per share basis, if the company hadn't needed to issue shares. Therefore, one can observe that the dilution is having a fairly profound effect on shareholder returns.

If P.G. Nikas' EPS can grow over time then that drastically improves the chances of the share price moving in the same direction. However, if its profit increases while its earnings per share stay flat (or even fall) then shareholders might not see much benefit. For that reason, you could say that EPS is more important that net income in the long run, assuming the goal is to assess whether a company's share price might grow.

Our Take On P.G. Nikas' Profit Performance

In conclusion, P.G. Nikas has weak cashflow relative to earnings, which indicates lower quality earnings, and the dilution means that shareholders now own a smaller proportion of the company (assuming they maintained the same number of shares). For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at P.G. Nikas' statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. For example, we've found that P.G. Nikas has 4 warning signs (2 are a bit concerning!) that deserve your attention before going any further with your analysis.

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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