LSE:NEX

Stock Analysis Report

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Executive Summary

National Express Group PLC provides public transport services in the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, North Africa, North America, and the Middle East. More Details


Snowflake Analysis

Reasonable growth potential and overvalued.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has National Express Group's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: NEX's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

5.9%

NEX

3.7%

GB Transportation

0.07%

GB Market


1 Year Return

-65.8%

NEX

-49.0%

GB Transportation

-15.4%

GB Market

Return vs Industry: NEX underperformed the UK Transportation industry which returned -49% over the past year.

Return vs Market: NEX underperformed the UK Market which returned -15.4% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

NEXIndustryMarket
7 Day5.9%3.7%0.07%
30 Day10.7%6.2%2.2%
90 Day3.6%12.8%-2.1%
1 Year-65.8%-65.8%-47.0%-49.0%-12.1%-15.4%
3 Year-54.9%-58.1%-41.3%-48.2%-8.4%-19.7%
5 Year-40.4%-48.2%-17.9%-30.7%16.4%-9.7%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is National Express Group's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is National Express Group undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

13.5%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: NEX (£1.55) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£1.79)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NEX is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: NEX is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the XE Transportation industry average.

PE vs Market: NEX is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the UK market.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate NEX's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: NEX's PB Ratio (0.7x) is in line with the GB Transportation industry average.


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is National Express Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 8 analysts?

63.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: NEX is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.2%).

Earnings vs Market: NEX is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: NEX's is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: NEX's revenue (10.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: NEX's revenue (10.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: NEX's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (14.8%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has National Express Group performed over the past 5 years?

-1.1%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: NEX is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: NEX is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: NEX is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 1.1% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare NEX's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: NEX is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Transportation industry (-25.6%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: NEX has a negative Return on Equity (-0.93%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is National Express Group's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: NEX's short term assets (£1.1B) do not cover its short term liabilities (£1.5B).

Long Term Liabilities: NEX's short term assets (£1.1B) do not cover its long term liabilities (£1.9B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: NEX's debt to equity ratio (114.8%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: NEX's debt to equity ratio has increased from 85.8% to 114.8% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: NEX's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (5.6%).

Interest Coverage: NEX is unprofitable, therefore interest payments are not well covered by earnings.


Balance Sheet


Next Steps

Dividend

What is National Express Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

4.94%

Forecast Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate NEX's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate NEX's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if NEX's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if NEX's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: NEX is not paying a notable dividend for the UK market.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of NEX's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the UK market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.4yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Chris Davies (50 yo)

0.083

Tenure

UK£1,674,000

Compensation

Mr. Chris Davies has been Group Finance Director and Executive Director of National Express Group PLC since June 1, 2017 and May 10, 2017 respectively and serves as its Interim Group Chief Executive Office ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Chris's total compensation ($USD2.18M) is about average for companies of similar size in the UK market ($USD1.76M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Chris's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Chris Davies
Group CFO0.083yrUK£1.67m0.032%
£ 301.8k
Louise Richardson
Head of Investor Relationsno datano datano data
Mike Goddard
Group Human Resources Directorno datano datano data
Chris Hardy
Managing Director of Coach3.75yrsno datano data
Tom Stables
Managing Director of UK & Germany7.92yrsno datano data
Craig Barker
Head of Safety - UK Coachno datano datano data
Ian Fraser
Managing Director of Kings Ferryno datano datano data
Julian Drury
Managing Director of C2Cno datano datano data
Paul Thomas
Managing Director of UK Bus3.42yrsno datano data
David Bradford
Managing Director of Bus Division for National Express West Midlands1.92yrsno datano data
Gary Waits
Chief Executive Officer of School Bus Division & Transit1.75yrsno datano data
Francisco Iglesias
Chief Executive Officer of ALSA4.75yrsno datano data

3.4yrs

Average Tenure

Experienced Management: NEX's management team is considered experienced (3.4 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Chris Davies
Group CFO0.083yrUK£1.67m0.032%
£ 301.8k
Michael J. McKeon
Independent Non-Executive Director5.25yrsUK£65.00k0.0034%
£ 32.4k
John Armitt
Independent Non-Executive Chairman7.67yrsUK£253.00k0.0040%
£ 38.1k
Ana de Pro Gonzalo
Independent Non-Executive Director1yrUK£13.00k0.00071%
£ 6.7k
Karen Geary
Independent Non-Executive Director1yrUK£13.00k0.0023%
£ 22.2k
Matthew Crummack
Senior Independent Non-Executive Director0.50yrUK£54.00k0.00044%
£ 4.2k
Ashley Steel
Independent Non-Executive Director4.75yrsUK£62.00k0.0054%
£ 50.9k
Jorge Cosmen
Non-Executive Deputy Chairman12yrsUK£54.00k0.46%
£ 4.3m
Chris Muntwyler
Independent Non-Executive Director9.42yrsUK£73.00k0.0036%
£ 33.7k
Elliott Sander
Independent Non-Executive Director9.33yrsUK£89.00k0.0012%
£ 11.7k

5.0yrs

Average Tenure

60yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: NEX's board of directors are considered experienced (5 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: NEX insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 20.2%.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

National Express Group PLC's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: National Express Group PLC
  • Ticker: NEX
  • Exchange: LSE
  • Founded: 1991
  • Industry: Trucking
  • Sector: Transportation
  • Market Cap: UK£949.657m
  • Shares outstanding: 612.68m
  • Website: https://www.nationalexpressgroup.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • National Express Group PLC
  • National Express House
  • Birmingham Coach Station
  • Birmingham
  • West Midlands
  • B5 6DD
  • United Kingdom

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
NEXLSE (London Stock Exchange)YesOrdinary SharesGBGBPDec 1992
NXPG.FOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)YesOrdinary SharesUSUSDDec 1992
3NADB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesOrdinary SharesDEEURDec 1992
NEXLBATS-CHIXE (BATS 'Chi-X Europe')YesOrdinary SharesGBGBPDec 1992

Biography

National Express Group PLC provides public transport services in the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, North Africa, North America, and the Middle East. The company operates through UK, German Rail, ALSA ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/10/24 20:44
End of Day Share Price2020/10/23 00:00
Earnings2020/06/30
Annual Earnings2019/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.