company background image
NEX

National Express Group LSE:NEX Stock Report

Last Price

UK£1.82

Market Cap

UK£1.1b

7D

-0.8%

1Y

-32.2%

Updated

06 Aug, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
NEX fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation3/6
Future Growth4/6
Past Performance0/6
Financial Health0/6
Dividends0/6

NEX Stock Overview

National Express Group PLC engages in providing public transport services in the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Morocco, Switzerland, the United States, and Canada.

National Express Group Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for National Express Group
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUK£1.82
52 Week HighUK£2.88
52 Week LowUK£1.67
Beta1.52
1 Month Change1.50%
3 Month Change-25.67%
1 Year Change-32.24%
3 Year Change-56.47%
5 Year Change-50.76%
Change since IPO6.67%

Recent News & Updates

May 18
National Express Group PLC's (LON:NEX) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 78% Above Its Share Price

National Express Group PLC's (LON:NEX) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 78% Above Its Share Price

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of National Express Group...

Apr 22
Is National Express Group (LON:NEX) Using Too Much Debt?

Is National Express Group (LON:NEX) Using Too Much Debt?

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...

Shareholder Returns

NEXGB TransportationGB Market
7D-0.8%0.9%0.5%
1Y-32.2%-15.1%-5.8%

Return vs Industry: NEX underperformed the UK Transportation industry which returned -15.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: NEX underperformed the UK Market which returned -5.8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is NEX's price volatile compared to industry and market?
NEX volatility
NEX Average Weekly Movement5.7%
Transportation Industry Average Movement4.4%
Market Average Movement5.4%
10% most volatile stocks in GB Market10.7%
10% least volatile stocks in GB Market2.7%

Stable Share Price: NEX is not significantly more volatile than the rest of UK stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: NEX's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
199144,500Jose Garathttps://www.nationalexpressgroup.com

National Express Group PLC engages in providing public transport services in the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Morocco, Switzerland, the United States, and Canada. The company operates through UK, German Rail, ALSA, and North America segments. It owns and leases buses, coaches, and trains to deliver local, regional, national, and international transportation services.

National Express Group Fundamentals Summary

How do National Express Group's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
NEX fundamental statistics
Market CapUK£1.12b
Earnings (TTM)-UK£64.80m
Revenue (TTM)UK£2.50b

0.4x

P/S Ratio

-17.2x

P/E Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
NEX income statement (TTM)
RevenueUK£2.50b
Cost of RevenueUK£1.58b
Gross ProfitUK£917.50m
Other ExpensesUK£982.30m
Earnings-UK£64.80m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Mar 02, 2023

Earnings per share (EPS)-0.11
Gross Margin36.67%
Net Profit Margin-2.59%
Debt/Equity Ratio81.2%

How did NEX perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is NEX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NEX?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

NEX key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA12.3x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does NEX's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

NEX PS Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PS ratio for NEX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.3x
FGP FirstGroup
0.2x2.6%UK£989.9m
REDD Redde Northgate
0.7x5.1%UK£884.4m
GOG Go-Ahead Group
0.2x-2.4%UK£662.3m
ROL Rotala
0.2xn/aUK£17.5m
NEX National Express Group
0.4x6.7%UK£1.1b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: NEX is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the peer average (0.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NEX's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Transportation Industry?

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: NEX is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the UK Transportation industry average (0.3x)


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NEX's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NEX PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.4x
Fair PS Ratio0.7x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: NEX is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NEX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NEX (£1.82) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£5.23)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NEX is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


Discover undervalued companies

Future Growth

How is National Express Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 10 analysts?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


67.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: NEX is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (0.9%).

Earnings vs Market: NEX is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: NEX is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: NEX's revenue (6.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: NEX's revenue (6.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: NEX's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (11%).


Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has National Express Group performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


-55.4%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: NEX is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: NEX is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: NEX is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 55.4% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare NEX's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: NEX is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Transportation industry (63.5%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: NEX has a negative Return on Equity (-2.37%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is National Express Group's financial position?

Financial Health Score

0/6

Financial Health Score 0/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: NEX's short term assets (£999.4M) do not cover its short term liabilities (£1.2B).

Long Term Liabilities: NEX's short term assets (£999.4M) do not cover its long term liabilities (£1.6B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: NEX's net debt to equity ratio (59.9%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: NEX's debt to equity ratio has increased from 73.2% to 81.2% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: NEX's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (15.8%).

Interest Coverage: NEX's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (0.3x coverage).


Balance Sheet


Discover healthy companies

Dividend

What is National Express Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage


5.07%

Forecast Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate NEX's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate NEX's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if NEX's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if NEX's dividend payments have been increasing.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: NEX is not paying a notable dividend for the UK market.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as NEX has not reported any payouts.


Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.2yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Jose Garat

1.75yrs

Tenure

UK£1,050,000

Compensation

Mr. Jose Ignacio Garat serves as the Group Chief Executive Officer and Director at National Express Group PLC since November 1, 2020. Mr. Garat was Senior Vice President Southern Europe, France and Benelux...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Jose's total compensation ($USD1.26M) is below average for companies of similar size in the UK market ($USD1.90M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Jose's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: NEX's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.2 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: NEX's board of directors are considered experienced (4 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: NEX insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

National Express Group PLC's employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: National Express Group PLC
  • Ticker: NEX
  • Exchange: LSE
  • Founded: 1991
  • Industry: Trucking
  • Sector: Transportation
  • Implied Market Cap: UK£1.117b
  • Shares outstanding: 612.60m
  • Website: https://www.nationalexpressgroup.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • National Express Group PLC
  • National Express House
  • Birmingham Coach Station
  • Birmingham
  • West Midlands
  • B5 6DD
  • United Kingdom

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/08/06 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/08/05 00:00
Earnings2022/06/30
Annual Earnings2021/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.