| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 3/6 |
| Future Growth | 4/6 |
| Past Performance | 0/6 |
| Financial Health | 0/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
NEX Stock Overview
National Express Group PLC engages in providing public transport services in the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Morocco, Switzerland, the United States, and Canada.
National Express Group Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | UK£1.82 |
| 52 Week High | UK£2.88 |
| 52 Week Low | UK£1.67 |
| Beta | 1.52 |
| 1 Month Change | 1.50% |
| 3 Month Change | -25.67% |
| 1 Year Change | -32.24% |
| 3 Year Change | -56.47% |
| 5 Year Change | -50.76% |
| Change since IPO | 6.67% |
Recent News & Updates
National Express Group PLC's (LON:NEX) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 78% Above Its Share Price
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of National Express Group...
Is National Express Group (LON:NEX) Using Too Much Debt?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...
Shareholder Returns
| NEX | GB Transportation | GB Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| 1Y | -32.2% | -15.1% | -6.8% |
Return vs Industry: NEX underperformed the UK Transportation industry which returned -15.1% over the past year.
Return vs Market: NEX underperformed the UK Market which returned -5.8% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| NEX volatility | |
|---|---|
| NEX Average Weekly Movement | 5.7% |
| Transportation Industry Average Movement | 4.4% |
| Market Average Movement | 5.4% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in GB Market | 10.7% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in GB Market | 2.7% |
Stable Share Price: NEX is not significantly more volatile than the rest of UK stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.
Volatility Over Time: NEX's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | 44,500 | Jose Garat | https://www.nationalexpressgroup.com |
National Express Group PLC engages in providing public transport services in the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Morocco, Switzerland, the United States, and Canada. The company operates through UK, German Rail, ALSA, and North America segments. It owns and leases buses, coaches, and trains to deliver local, regional, national, and international transportation services.
National Express Group Fundamentals Summary
| NEX fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | UK£1.12b |
| Earnings (TTM) | -UK£64.80m |
| Revenue (TTM) | UK£2.50b |
0.4x
P/S Ratio-17.2x
P/E RatioIs NEX overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| NEX income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | UK£2.50b |
| Cost of Revenue | UK£1.58b |
| Gross Profit | UK£917.50m |
| Other Expenses | UK£982.30m |
| Earnings | -UK£64.80m |
Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2022
Next Earnings Date
Mar 02, 2023
| Earnings per share (EPS) | -0.11 |
| Gross Margin | 36.67% |
| Net Profit Margin | -2.59% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 81.2% |
How did NEX perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonValuation
Is NEX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
3/6Valuation Score 3/6
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NEX?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is NEX's n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a Ratio | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | UK£1.12b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 0.9x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 12.3x |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does NEX's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
| NEX PS Ratio vs Peers |
|---|
| Company | PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 0.3x | ||
FGP FirstGroup | 0.2x | 2.6% | UK£989.9m |
REDD Redde Northgate | 0.7x | 5.1% | UK£884.4m |
GOG Go-Ahead Group | 0.2x | -2.4% | UK£662.3m |
ROL Rotala | 0.2x | n/a | UK£17.5m |
NEX National Express Group | 0.4x | 6.7% | UK£1.1b |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: NEX is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the peer average (0.3x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does NEX's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Transportation Industry?
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: NEX is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the UK Transportation industry average (0.3x)
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is NEX's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PS Ratio | 0.4x |
| Fair PS Ratio | 0.7x |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: NEX is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x).
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of NEX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: NEX (£1.82) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£5.23)
Significantly Below Fair Value: NEX is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.
Discover undervalued companies
Future Growth
How is National Express Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 10 analysts?
Future Growth Score
4/6Future Growth Score 4/6
Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE
67.8%
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: NEX is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (0.9%).
Earnings vs Market: NEX is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.
High Growth Earnings: NEX is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: NEX's revenue (6.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (4% per year).
High Growth Revenue: NEX's revenue (6.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: NEX's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (11%).
Discover growth companies
Past Performance
How has National Express Group performed over the past 5 years?
Past Performance Score
0/6Past Performance Score 0/6
Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE
-55.4%
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: NEX is currently unprofitable.
Growing Profit Margin: NEX is currently unprofitable.
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: NEX is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 55.4% per year.
Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare NEX's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable
Earnings vs Industry: NEX is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Transportation industry (63.5%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: NEX has a negative Return on Equity (-2.37%), as it is currently unprofitable.
Discover strong past performing companies
Financial Health
How is National Express Group's financial position?
Financial Health Score
0/6Financial Health Score 0/6
Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: NEX's short term assets (£999.4M) do not cover its short term liabilities (£1.2B).
Long Term Liabilities: NEX's short term assets (£999.4M) do not cover its long term liabilities (£1.6B).
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: NEX's net debt to equity ratio (59.9%) is considered high.
Reducing Debt: NEX's debt to equity ratio has increased from 73.2% to 81.2% over the past 5 years.
Debt Coverage: NEX's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (15.8%).
Interest Coverage: NEX's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (0.3x coverage).
Balance Sheet
Discover healthy companies
Dividend
What is National Express Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Dividend Score
0/6Dividend Score 0/6
Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage
5.07%
Forecast Dividend Yield
Dividend Yield vs Market
Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate NEX's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
High Dividend: Unable to evaluate NEX's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if NEX's dividends per share have been stable in the past.
Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if NEX's dividend payments have been increasing.
Earnings Payout to Shareholders
Earnings Coverage: NEX is not paying a notable dividend for the UK market.
Cash Payout to Shareholders
Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as NEX has not reported any payouts.
Discover strong dividend paying companies
Management
How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
5.2yrs
Average management tenure
CEO
Jose Garat
1.75yrs
Tenure
UK£1,050,000
Compensation
Mr. Jose Ignacio Garat serves as the Group Chief Executive Officer and Director at National Express Group PLC since November 1, 2020. Mr. Garat was Senior Vice President Southern Europe, France and Benelux...
CEO Compensation Analysis
Compensation vs Market: Jose's total compensation ($USD1.26M) is below average for companies of similar size in the UK market ($USD1.90M).
Compensation vs Earnings: Jose's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.
Leadership Team
Experienced Management: NEX's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.2 years average tenure).
Board Members
Experienced Board: NEX's board of directors are considered experienced (4 years average tenure).
Ownership
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: NEX insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
Ownership Breakdown
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.
Top Shareholders
Company Information
National Express Group PLC's employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
Key Information
- Name: National Express Group PLC
- Ticker: NEX
- Exchange: LSE
- Founded: 1991
- Industry: Trucking
- Sector: Transportation
- Implied Market Cap: UK£1.117b
- Shares outstanding: 612.60m
- Website: https://www.nationalexpressgroup.com
Number of Employees
Location
- National Express Group PLC
- National Express House
- Birmingham Coach Station
- Birmingham
- West Midlands
- B5 6DD
- United Kingdom
Listings
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2022/08/06 00:00 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2022/08/05 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2022/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2021/12/31 |
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.