LSE:NEX

Stock Analysis Report

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Market Cap

UK£1.7b

Last Updated

2021/07/31 03:45 UTC

Data Sources

Company Financials +

Executive Summary

National Express Group PLC provides public transport services in the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Morocco, Switzerland, the United States, and Canada. More Details


Snowflake Analysis

Reasonable growth potential and fair value.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has National Express Group's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: NEX is not significantly more volatile than the rest of UK stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: NEX's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

4.1%

NEX

3.0%

GB Transportation

0.3%

GB Market


1 Year Return

79.5%

NEX

84.0%

GB Transportation

22.4%

GB Market

Return vs Industry: NEX underperformed the UK Transportation industry which returned 84% over the past year.

Return vs Market: NEX exceeded the UK Market which returned 22.4% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

NEXIndustryMarket
7 Day4.1%3.0%0.3%
30 Day-1.2%2.2%0.3%
90 Day-9.2%4.3%1.5%
1 Year79.5%79.5%92.7%84.0%27.9%22.4%
3 Year-29.1%-32.5%-16.6%-26.0%12.7%-0.1%
5 Year-11.1%-21.0%24.8%6.7%39.4%12.6%

Long-Term Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is National Express Group's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is National Express Group undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

40.8%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: NEX (£2.72) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£4.6)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NEX is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: NEX is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the UK Transportation industry average.

PE vs Market: NEX is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the UK market.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate NEX's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: NEX is good value based on its PB Ratio (1.2x) compared to the GB Transportation industry average (1.3x).


Future Growth

How is National Express Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 9 analysts?

93.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: NEX is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (0.9%).

Earnings vs Market: NEX is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: NEX's is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: NEX's revenue (12.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (4.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: NEX's revenue (12.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: NEX's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (12.4%).


Past Performance

How has National Express Group performed over the past 5 years?

-53.2%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: NEX is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: NEX is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: NEX is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 53.2% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare NEX's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: NEX is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Transportation industry (-27.4%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: NEX has a negative Return on Equity (-17.52%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Financial Health

How is National Express Group's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: NEX's short term assets (£978.8M) do not cover its short term liabilities (£1.1B).

Long Term Liabilities: NEX's short term assets (£978.8M) do not cover its long term liabilities (£1.7B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: NEX's debt to equity ratio (78.5%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: NEX's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 80.9% to 78.5% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: NEX's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (6.2%).

Interest Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if NEX's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT.


Balance Sheet


Dividend

What is National Express Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

3.15%

Forecast Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate NEX's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate NEX's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if NEX's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if NEX's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: NEX is not paying a notable dividend for the UK market.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of NEX's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the UK market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.0yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Jose Garat

0.58

Tenure

UK£603,000

Compensation

Mr. Jose Ignacio Garat serves as the Group Chief Executive Officer and Director at National Express Group PLC since November 1, 2020. Mr. Garat was Senior Vice President Southern Europe, France and Benelux...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Jose's total compensation ($USD838.54K) is below average for companies of similar size in the UK market ($USD1.38M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Insufficient data to compare Jose's compensation with company performance.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: NEX's management team is considered experienced (4 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: NEX's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 3 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

National Express Group PLC's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: National Express Group PLC
  • Ticker: NEX
  • Exchange: LSE
  • Founded: 1991
  • Industry: Trucking
  • Sector: Transportation
  • Market Cap: UK£1.668b
  • Shares outstanding: 613.21m
  • Website: https://www.nationalexpressgroup.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • National Express Group PLC
  • National Express House
  • Birmingham Coach Station
  • Birmingham
  • West Midlands
  • B5 6DD
  • United Kingdom

Listings


Biography

National Express Group PLC provides public transport services in the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Morocco, Switzerland, the United States, and Canada. The company operates through UK, German Rail, ALSA,...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2021/07/31 03:45
End of Day Share Price2021/07/30 00:00
Earnings2021/06/30
Annual Earnings2020/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.