What Type Of Returns Would International Consolidated Airlines Group's(LON:IAG) Shareholders Have Earned If They Purchased Their SharesThree Years Ago?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
August 31, 2020
LSE:IAG

Over the last month the International Consolidated Airlines Group, S.A. (LON:IAG) has been much stronger than before, rebounding by 31%. But over the last three years we've seen a quite serious decline. In that time, the share price dropped 64%. So it is really good to see an improvement. Perhaps the company has turned over a new leaf.

View our latest analysis for International Consolidated Airlines Group

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

International Consolidated Airlines Group saw its share price decline over the three years in which its EPS also dropped, falling to a loss. Due to the loss, it's not easy to use EPS as a reliable guide to the business. However, we can say we'd expect to see a falling share price in this scenario.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
LSE:IAG Earnings Per Share Growth August 31st 2020

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. This free interactive report on International Consolidated Airlines Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between International Consolidated Airlines Group's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Dividends have been really beneficial for International Consolidated Airlines Group shareholders, and that cash payout explains why its total shareholder loss of 58%, over the last 3 years, isn't as bad as the share price return.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that International Consolidated Airlines Group shareholders are down 48% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 9.0%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 8.8% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand International Consolidated Airlines Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for International Consolidated Airlines Group (of which 1 is a bit concerning!) you should know about.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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