Xpediator (AIM:XPD) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of XPD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

XPD (£0.31) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (£1.4)

XPD fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	4/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	1/6

XPD Stock Overview

Xpediator Plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides freight management services in the United Kingdom and rest of Europe.

Rewards

Trading at 77.8% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 44.98% per year

Risk Analysis

Dividend of 3.55% is not well covered by earnings or forecast to be in the next 3 years

Profit margins (0.1%) are lower than last year (0.9%)

Does not have a meaningful market cap (£44M)

Xpediator Competitors

DX (Group)

AIM:DX.

UK£172.1m

Wincanton

LSE:WIN

UK£466.4m

Royal Mail

LSE:RMG

UK£2.5b

Braemar Shipping Services

LSE:BMS

UK£82.5m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Xpediator
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	UK£0.31
52 Week High	UK£0.77
52 Week Low	UK£0.28
Beta	1.37
1 Month Change	-8.15%
3 Month Change	-1.59%
1 Year Change	-58.11%
3 Year Change	2.38%
5 Year Change	14.16%
Change since IPO	16.22%

Shareholder Returns

	XPD	GB Logistics	GB Market
7D	-3.1%	0.9%	-0.3%
1Y	-58.1%	-24.7%	-9.1%

Return vs Industry: XPD underperformed the UK Logistics industry which returned -24% over the past year.

Return vs Market: XPD underperformed the UK Market which returned -8.9% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is XPD's price volatile compared to industry and market?
XPD volatility
XPD Average Weekly Movement	5.1%
Logistics Industry Average Movement	4.8%
Market Average Movement	5.4%
10% most volatile stocks in GB Market	10.8%
10% least volatile stocks in GB Market	2.7%

Stable Share Price: XPD is not significantly more volatile than the rest of UK stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: XPD's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1988	1,432	Mike Stone	https://xpediator.com

Xpediator Plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides freight management services in the United Kingdom and rest of Europe. It operates through three segments: Freight Forwarding, Affinity, and Logistics & Warehousing. The company offers freight forwarding and courier solutions by road, ocean, and air, as well as stock management, short and long term warehousing, and on site packing services; and B2B freight forwarding and courier services to the e-commerce, food, procurement, and oil industries.

Xpediator Fundamentals Summary

How do Xpediator's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
XPD fundamental statistics
Market Cap	UK£43.94m
Earnings (TTM)	UK£417.00k
Revenue (TTM)	UK£296.59m

105.4x

P/E Ratio

0.1x

P/S Ratio

Is XPD overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
XPD income statement (TTM)
Revenue	UK£296.59m
Cost of Revenue	UK£228.20m
Gross Profit	UK£68.39m
Other Expenses	UK£67.98m
Earnings	UK£417.00k

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.0029
Gross Margin	23.06%
Net Profit Margin	0.14%
Debt/Equity Ratio	56.5%

How did XPD perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

3.5%

Current Dividend Yield

374%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is XPD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for XPD?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for XPD. This is calculated by dividing XPD's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is XPD's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	UK£43.94m

XPD key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	12.1x
PEG Ratio	2.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does XPD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

XPD PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for XPD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	8.1x
DX. DX (Group)	11.2x	19.6%	UK£172.1m
WIN Wincanton	9.7x	4.7%	UK£466.4m
RMG Royal Mail	4.1x	-15.8%	UK£2.5b
BMS Braemar Shipping Services	7.2x	-21.7%	UK£82.5m
XPD Xpediator	105.4x	45.0%	UK£43.9m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: XPD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (105.4x) compared to the peer average (8.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does XPD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Logistics Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: XPD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (105.4x) compared to the European Logistics industry average (12.1x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is XPD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

XPD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	105.4x
Fair PE Ratio	15.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: XPD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (105.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.7x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of XPD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: XPD (£0.31) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£1.4)

Significantly Below Fair Value: XPD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Future Growth

How is Xpediator forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

45.0%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: XPD's forecast earnings growth (45% per year) is above the savings rate (0.9%).

Earnings vs Market: XPD's earnings (45% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the UK market (9.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: XPD's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: XPD's revenue (4.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (3.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: XPD's revenue (4.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if XPD's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has Xpediator performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

1.0%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: XPD has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: XPD's current net profit margins (0.1%) are lower than last year (0.9%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: XPD's earnings have grown by 1% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: XPD's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: XPD had negative earnings growth (-79.5%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Logistics industry average (19.6%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: XPD's Return on Equity (6.4%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Xpediator's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: XPD's short term assets (£110.4M) do not cover its short term liabilities (£111.8M).

Long Term Liabilities: XPD's short term assets (£110.4M) exceed its long term liabilities (£55.2M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: XPD's net debt to equity ratio (16.5%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: XPD's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 148.1% to 56.5% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: XPD's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (28.4%).

Interest Coverage: XPD's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (3.6x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Xpediator current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

1/6

Dividend Score 1/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

3.55%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: XPD's dividend (3.55%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (1.83%).

High Dividend: XPD's dividend (3.55%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (5.11%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: XPD has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile.

Growing Dividend: XPD's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 5 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its high payout ratio (373.8%), XPD's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (139.3%), XPD's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.6yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Mike Stone (62 yo)

0.17

Tenure

Mr. Michael Adrian Stone, also known as Mike, had been the Managing Director of Neopost Limited (UK Operations) at Quadient SAS (formerly known as Neopost S.A.) since March 29, 2011. Mr. Stone serves as In...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: XPD's management team is considered experienced (2.6 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: XPD's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.5 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/11 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/11 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31