Oxford Metrics (AIM:OMG) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of OMG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

OMG (£1.03) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (£0.49)

OMG fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	1/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	4/6

OMG Stock Overview

Oxford Metrics plc provides software for infrastructure asset management and motion measurement.

Rewards

Revenue is forecast to grow 15.86% per year

Risk Analysis

Earnings have declined by 8.5% per year over past 5 years

Dividend of 1.95% is not well covered by earnings

Volatile share price over the past 3 months

Large one-off items impacting financial results

+ 2 more risks

Oxford Metrics Competitors

Quartix Technologies

AIM:QTX

UK£164.5m

Netcall

AIM:NET

UK£123.8m

LSE:RM.

UK£83.3m

Aptitude Software Group

LSE:APTD

UK£236.2m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Oxford Metrics
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	UK£1.03
52 Week High	UK£1.32
52 Week Low	UK£0.75
Beta	0.90
1 Month Change	0.98%
3 Month Change	27.33%
1 Year Change	-4.65%
3 Year Change	19.19%
5 Year Change	80.78%
Change since IPO	20.59%

Shareholder Returns

	OMG	GB Software	GB Market
7D	0%	7.9%	0.5%
1Y	-4.7%	-20.9%	-6.8%

Return vs Industry: OMG exceeded the UK Software industry which returned -20.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: OMG exceeded the UK Market which returned -6.8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is OMG's price volatile compared to industry and market?
OMG volatility
OMG Average Weekly Movement	9.4%
Software Industry Average Movement	5.7%
Market Average Movement	5.4%
10% most volatile stocks in GB Market	10.7%
10% least volatile stocks in GB Market	2.7%

Stable Share Price: OMG is more volatile than 75% of UK stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 9% a week.

Volatility Over Time: OMG's weekly volatility (9%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of UK stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1984	214	Nick Bolton	https://www.oxfordmetrics.com

Oxford Metrics plc provides software for infrastructure asset management and motion measurement. It operates through Vicon Group and Yotta Group segments. The Vicon Group segment engages in the development, production, and sale of computer software and equipment for the engineering, entertainment, and life science markets.

Oxford Metrics Fundamentals Summary

How do Oxford Metrics's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
OMG fundamental statistics
Market Cap	UK£133.01m
Earnings (TTM)	UK£2.60m
Revenue (TTM)	UK£36.95m

51.1x

P/E Ratio

3.6x

P/S Ratio

Is OMG overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
OMG income statement (TTM)
Revenue	UK£36.95m
Cost of Revenue	UK£11.02m
Gross Profit	UK£25.93m
Other Expenses	UK£23.33m
Earnings	UK£2.60m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.02
Gross Margin	70.19%
Net Profit Margin	7.04%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0%

How did OMG perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

2.0%

Current Dividend Yield

98%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is OMG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for OMG?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for OMG. This is calculated by dividing OMG's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is OMG's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	UK£133.01m

OMG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	3.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	24.8x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does OMG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

OMG PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for OMG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	61x
QTX Quartix Technologies	32x	7.0%	UK£164.5m
NET Netcall	105.8x	n/a	UK£123.8m
RM. RM	19.9x	51.9%	UK£83.3m
APTD Aptitude Software Group	86.4x	42.3%	UK£236.2m
OMG Oxford Metrics	51.1x	n/a	UK£133.0m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: OMG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (51.1x) compared to the peer average (61x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does OMG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Software Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: OMG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (51.1x) compared to the UK Software industry average (48.3x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is OMG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

OMG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	51.1x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate OMG's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of OMG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: OMG (£1.03) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£0.49)

Significantly Below Fair Value: OMG is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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Future Growth

How is Oxford Metrics forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

15.9%

Forecasted annual revenue growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: Insufficient data to determine if OMG's forecast earnings growth is above the savings rate (0.9%).

Earnings vs Market: Insufficient data to determine if OMG's earnings are forecast to grow faster than the UK market

High Growth Earnings: Insufficient data to determine if OMG's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: OMG's revenue (15.9% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (4.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: OMG's revenue (15.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: OMG's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (6.2%).

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Past Performance

How has Oxford Metrics performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-8.5%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: OMG has a large one-off loss of £1.1M impacting its March 31 2022 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: OMG's current net profit margins (7%) are lower than last year (11.2%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: OMG's earnings have declined by 8.5% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: OMG's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: OMG had negative earnings growth (-12.5%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Software industry average (-13.1%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: OMG's Return on Equity (8.4%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Oxford Metrics's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: OMG's short term assets (£37.8M) exceed its short term liabilities (£15.8M).

Long Term Liabilities: OMG's short term assets (£37.8M) exceed its long term liabilities (£3.8M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: OMG is debt free.

Reducing Debt: OMG has not had any debt for past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: OMG has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: OMG has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Oxford Metrics's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

1.95%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: OMG's dividend (1.95%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (1.87%).

High Dividend: OMG's dividend (1.95%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (5.13%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: OMG's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: OMG's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its high payout ratio (97.6%), OMG's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonably low cash payout ratio (27.6%), OMG's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.2yrs

Average board tenure

CEO

Nick Bolton (53 yo)

17.25yrs

Tenure

UK£522,000

Compensation

Mr. Nicholas Paul Bolton, also known as Nick, serves as Chief Executive Officer at Oxford Metrics plc since May 27, 2005 and serves as its Executive Director. Mr. Bolton serves as the Chief Executive Offic...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Nick's total compensation ($USD628.74K) is about average for companies of similar size in the UK market ($USD716.00K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Nick's compensation has increased by more than 20% whilst company earnings have fallen more than 20% in the past year.

Board Members

Experienced Board: OMG's board of directors are considered experienced (4.2 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 2.2%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/07 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/05 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/09/30