If You Had Bought Kingfisher (LON:KGF) Stock Three Years Ago, You’d Be Sitting On A 37% Loss, Today

As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. Unfortunately, that’s been the case for longer term Kingfisher plc (LON:KGF) shareholders, since the share price is down 37% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 22%. It’s down 4.2% in the last seven days.

View our latest analysis for Kingfisher

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the three years that the share price fell, Kingfisher’s earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 22% each year. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 14% compound annual share price fall. This suggests that the market retains some optimism around long term earnings stability, despite past EPS declines.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

LSE:KGF Past and Future Earnings, January 15th 2020
LSE:KGF Past and Future Earnings, January 15th 2020

It’s good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That’s a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Kingfisher’s earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Kingfisher the TSR over the last 3 years was -29%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Kingfisher provided a TSR of 4.0% over the last twelve months. But that was short of the market average. On the bright side, that’s still a gain, and it is certainly better than the yearly loss of about 4.9% endured over half a decade. It could well be that the business is stabilizing. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Be aware that Kingfisher is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about…

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.

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