Card Factory (LSE:CARD) - Share price, News & Analysis

CARD fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	4/6
Past Performance	1/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	0/6

CARD Stock Overview

Card Factory plc operates as a specialist retailer of greeting cards in the United Kingdom.

Rewards

Trading at 33% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 46.35% per year

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Highly volatile share price over the past 3 months

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Card Factory Competitors

WH Smith

LSE:SMWH

UK£2.0b

TheWorks.co.uk

LSE:WRKS

UK£34.4m

Amazon.com

NasdaqGS:AMZN

US$1.1t

Tesco

LSE:TSCO

UK£19.6b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Card Factory
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	UK£0.64
52 Week High	UK£0.73
52 Week Low	UK£0.39
Beta	1.76
1 Month Change	12.92%
3 Month Change	19.48%
1 Year Change	-12.60%
3 Year Change	-66.53%
5 Year Change	-80.83%
Change since IPO	-68.26%

Shareholder Returns

	CARD	GB Specialty Retail	GB Market
7D	-1.7%	-4.6%	-0.4%
1Y	-12.6%	-22.9%	-4.0%

Return vs Industry: CARD exceeded the UK Specialty Retail industry which returned -22.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: CARD underperformed the UK Market which returned -4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is CARD's price volatile compared to industry and market?
CARD volatility
CARD Average Weekly Movement	11.7%
Specialty Retail Industry Average Movement	6.2%
Market Average Movement	6.2%
10% most volatile stocks in GB Market	11.6%
10% least volatile stocks in GB Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: CARD is more volatile than 90% of UK stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 12% a week.

Volatility Over Time: CARD's weekly volatility (12%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of UK stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1997	9,170	Darcy Willson-Rymer	https://www.cardfactoryinvestors.com

Card Factory plc operates as a specialist retailer of greeting cards in the United Kingdom. The company designs, sources, prints, warehouses, produces, distributes, and sells greeting cards, dressings, balloons, and gifts. It operates in two segments, Card Factory and Getting Personal.

Card Factory Fundamentals Summary

How do Card Factory's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
CARD fundamental statistics
Market Cap	UK£218.43m
Earnings (TTM)	UK£8.10m
Revenue (TTM)	UK£364.40m

27.0x

P/E Ratio

0.6x

P/S Ratio

Is CARD overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
CARD income statement (TTM)
Revenue	UK£364.40m
Cost of Revenue	UK£247.90m
Gross Profit	UK£116.50m
Other Expenses	UK£108.40m
Earnings	UK£8.10m

Last Reported Earnings

Jan 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Sep 27, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.024
Gross Margin	31.97%
Net Profit Margin	2.22%
Debt/Equity Ratio	50.5%

How did CARD perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Valuation

Is Card Factory undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

33.0%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: CARD (£0.64) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£0.95)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CARD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: CARD is poor value based on its PE Ratio (27x) compared to the UK Specialty Retail industry average (9.7x).

PE vs Market: CARD is poor value based on its PE Ratio (27x) compared to the UK market (15.4x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: CARD is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.6x)

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: CARD is good value based on its PB Ratio (1x) compared to the GB Specialty Retail industry average (1.4x).

Future Growth

How is Card Factory forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

46.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CARD's forecast earnings growth (46.4% per year) is above the savings rate (0.9%).

Earnings vs Market: CARD's earnings (46.4% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the UK market (11.3% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: CARD's revenue (10.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (4.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CARD's revenue (10.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: CARD's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (15.5%).

Past Performance

How has Card Factory performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

1/6

Past Performance Score 1/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-40.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: CARD has a large one-off gain of £3.0M impacting its January 31 2022 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: CARD became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: CARD's earnings have declined by 40.9% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: CARD has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: CARD has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Specialty Retail industry (50.5%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: CARD's Return on Equity (3.7%) is considered low.

Financial Health

How is Card Factory's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: CARD's short term assets (£80.3M) do not cover its short term liabilities (£152.2M).

Long Term Liabilities: CARD's short term assets (£80.3M) do not cover its long term liabilities (£164.2M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: CARD's net debt to equity ratio (33.1%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: CARD's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 55.5% to 50.5% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: CARD's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (102.4%).

Interest Coverage: CARD's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (1.4x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is Card Factory current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

2.33%

Forecast Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate CARD's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate CARD's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CARD's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CARD's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: CARD is not paying a notable dividend for the UK market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as CARD has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.8yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Darcy Willson-Rymer

1.17yrs

Tenure

Mr. Darcy Willson-Rymer has been Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director of Card Factory plc since March 08, 2021. He serves as the Chief Executive Officer at Costcutter Supermarkets Group Limited....

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: CARD's management team is considered experienced (4.8 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: CARD's board of directors are considered experienced (3.6 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: CARD insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/22 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/20 00:00
Earnings	2022/01/31
Annual Earnings	2022/01/31