AIM:SHED

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Urban Logistics REIT plc is a property investment company, quoted on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange, (AIM: SHED).

Rewards

Trading at 34.6% below its fair value

Revenue is forecast to grow 7.15% per year

Earnings grew by 15% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Unstable dividend track record

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year



Snowflake Analysis

Undervalued second-rate dividend payer.

Share Price & News

How has Urban Logistics REIT's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: SHED has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-1.0%

SHED

2.5%

GB REITs

1.4%

GB Market


1 Year Return

25.7%

SHED

16.9%

GB REITs

12.4%

GB Market

Return vs Industry: SHED exceeded the UK REITs industry which returned 10.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: SHED exceeded the UK Market which returned 12.7% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

SHEDIndustryMarket
7 Day-1.0%2.5%1.4%
30 Day-0.7%2.1%1.8%
90 Day8.6%3.6%8.8%
1 Year33.4%25.7%22.1%16.9%18.3%12.4%
3 Year42.5%20.9%34.4%15.5%23.8%8.0%
5 Yearn/a29.3%3.6%41.8%8.9%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Urban Logistics REIT's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Urban Logistics REIT undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

35.3%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: SHED (£1.46) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£2.23)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SHED is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: SHED is good value based on its PE Ratio (6.9x) compared to the REITs industry average (15.2x).

PE vs Market: SHED is good value based on its PE Ratio (6.9x) compared to the UK market (18.5x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate SHED's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: SHED is good value based on its PB Ratio (1x) compared to the GB REITs industry average (1x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Urban Logistics REIT forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

7.5%

Forecasted annual revenue growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: Insufficient data to determine if SHED's forecast earnings growth is above the savings rate (0.5%).

Earnings vs Market: Insufficient data to determine if SHED's earnings are forecast to grow faster than the UK market

High Growth Earnings: Insufficient data to determine if earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: SHED's revenue (7.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (3.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: SHED's revenue (7.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if SHED's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Urban Logistics REIT performed over the past 5 years?

15.0%

Last years earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: SHED has a large one-off gain of £13.1M impacting its September 30 2019 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: SHED's current net profit margins are lower than last year .


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: Insufficient data to determine if SHED's year-on-year earnings growth rate was positive over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: Insufficient data to compare SHED's past year earnings growth to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: SHED earnings growth over the past year (15%) exceeded the REITs industry -21.1%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: SHED's Return on Equity (14.7%) is considered low.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Urban Logistics REIT's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)


Financial Position Analysis


Debt to Equity History and Analysis


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: SHED has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: SHED's debt is not covered by short term assets (assets are 0.2x debt).


Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: SHED's level of assets compared to its equity is low.

Allowance for Bad Loans: Insufficient data to determine if SHED has a sufficient allowance for bad loans.

Low Risk Liabilities: SHED reports no customer deposits, loans are made up entirely of externally borrowed funds.

Loan Level: Insufficient data to determine if SHED has an acceptable proportion of non-loan assets held.

Low Risk Deposits: SHED has advanced significantly more loans than the customer deposits it holds.

Level of Bad Loans: Insufficient data to determine if SHED has an appropriate level of bad loans.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Urban Logistics REIT's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

4.84%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company4.8%marketbottom25%1.8%markettop25%5.0%industryaverage3.8%forecastin3Years5.8%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: SHED's dividend (4.79%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (1.83%).

High Dividend: SHED's dividend (4.79%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (4.95%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: SHED has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile.

Growing Dividend: SHED's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 3 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (74.2%), SHED's dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: SHED's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be covered by earnings (89.6% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of Urban Logistics REIT's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

3.4yrs

Average board tenure


CEO

Richard Moffitt (55yo)

0yrs

Tenure

0

Mr. John Richard Moffitt served as the Head of Industrial and Executive Director at CBRE Limited, where he was Head of the UK Industrial team. Mr. Moffitt serves as Chief Executive Officer of Urban Logisti ...


Board Age and Tenure

3.4yrs

Average Tenure

55yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: SHED's board of directors are considered experienced (3.4 years average tenure).


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 14.9%.


Management Team

  • Richard Moffitt (55yo)

    CEO & Director

    • Michael Perkins

      Financial Accountant

      • Tenure: 4yrs
    • Josh Furniss

      Financial Controller


      Board Members

      • Nigel Sutherland Rich (73yo)

        Independent Non-Executive Chairman

        • Tenure: 3yrs
        • Compensation: UK£75.00k
      • Mark Johnson (60yo)

        Non-Executive Director

        • Tenure: 3yrs
      • Richard Moffitt (55yo)

        CEO & Director

        • Bruce Anderson (55yo)

          Independent Non-Executive Director

          • Tenure: 3.8yrs
          • Compensation: UK£35.00k
        • Jonathan James Olav Gray (52yo)

          Senior Independent Director

          • Compensation: UK£35.00k

        Company Information

        Urban Logistics REIT plc's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


        Key Information

        • Name: Urban Logistics REIT plc
        • Ticker: SHED
        • Exchange: AIM
        • Founded:
        • Industry: Industrial REITs
        • Sector: Real Estate
        • Market Cap: UK£126.801m
        • Shares outstanding: 87.75m
        • Website: https://www.urbanlogisticsreit.com

        Location

        • Urban Logistics REIT plc
        • 124 Sloane Street
        • London
        • East Lothian
        • SW1X 9BW
        • United Kingdom

        Listings

        TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
        SHEDAIM (London Stock Exchange AIM Market)YesOrdinary SharesGBGBPApr 2016

        Biography

        Urban Logistics REIT plc is a property investment company, quoted on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange, (AIM: SHED). The Company invests in UK-based logistics properties with the objective of generating attractive dividends and capital returns for its shareholders. Its investment strategy focuses on strategically located smaller single let logistics properties servicing high-quality tenants. Investment returns will be generated by an experienced management team focusing on quality stock selection and active asset management. 


        Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

        All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
        DataLast Updated (UTC time)
        Company Analysis2020/01/20 22:43
        End of Day Share Price2020/01/20 00:00
        Earnings2019/09/30
        Annual Earnings2019/03/31


        Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.