National World (LSE:NWOR) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of NWOR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

NWOR (£0.19) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (£5.23)

NWOR fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	0/6

NWOR Stock Overview

National World Plc operates in the news publishing industry in the United Kingdom.

Rewards

Trading at 96.5% below our estimate of its fair value

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 14.7% per year for the next 3 years

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Does not have a meaningful market cap (£48M)

National World Competitors

XLMedia

AIM:XLM

UK£82.5m

Brave Bison Group

AIM:BBSN

UK£25.4m

Audioboom Group

AIM:BOOM

UK£117.3m

Digitalbox

AIM:DBOX

UK£15.9m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for National World
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	UK£0.18
52 Week High	UK£0.42
52 Week Low	UK£0.16
Beta	0.74
1 Month Change	2.78%
3 Month Change	-11.91%
1 Year Change	-50.00%
3 Year Change	n/a
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	70.12%

Shareholder Returns

	NWOR	GB Interactive Media and Services	GB Market
7D	-2.6%	2.3%	0.5%
1Y	-50.0%	-30.2%	-6.8%

Return vs Industry: NWOR underperformed the UK Interactive Media and Services industry which returned -30.2% over the past year.

Return vs Market: NWOR underperformed the UK Market which returned -6.8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is NWOR's price volatile compared to industry and market?
NWOR volatility
NWOR Average Weekly Movement	7.4%
Interactive Media and Services Industry Average Movement	7.2%
Market Average Movement	5.4%
10% most volatile stocks in GB Market	10.7%
10% least volatile stocks in GB Market	2.7%

Stable Share Price: NWOR is not significantly more volatile than the rest of UK stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: NWOR's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2019	1,179	David Montgomery	https://www.nationalworld.com

National World Plc operates in the news publishing industry in the United Kingdom. It provides news and information services through a portfolio of approximately 139 multimedia publications and websites. National World Plc was incorporated in 2019 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

National World Fundamentals Summary

How do National World's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
NWOR fundamental statistics
Market Cap	UK£48.00m
Earnings (TTM)	UK£9.30m
Revenue (TTM)	UK£87.40m

5.2x

P/E Ratio

0.5x

P/S Ratio

Is NWOR overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
NWOR income statement (TTM)
Revenue	UK£87.40m
Cost of Revenue	UK£64.80m
Gross Profit	UK£22.60m
Other Expenses	UK£13.30m
Earnings	UK£9.30m

Last Reported Earnings

Jul 02, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.036
Gross Margin	25.86%
Net Profit Margin	10.64%
Debt/Equity Ratio	3.1%

How did NWOR perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is NWOR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NWOR?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for NWOR. This is calculated by dividing NWOR's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is NWOR's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	UK£48.00m

NWOR key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	2.3x
PEG Ratio	-0.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NWOR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

NWOR PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for NWOR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	32.9x
XLM XLMedia	17.6x	45.3%	UK£82.5m
BBSN Brave Bison Group	56x	n/a	UK£25.4m
BOOM Audioboom Group	17.6x	-49.9%	UK£117.3m
DBOX Digitalbox	40.3x	36.0%	UK£15.9m
NWOR National World	5.2x	-14.7%	UK£48.0m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NWOR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.2x) compared to the peer average (32.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NWOR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Interactive Media and Services Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NWOR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.2x) compared to the UK Interactive Media and Services industry average (26.9x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NWOR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NWOR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	5.2x
Fair PE Ratio	11.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NWOR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.4x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NWOR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NWOR (£0.19) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£5.23)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NWOR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Future Growth

How is National World forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-14.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: NWOR's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-14.7% per year).

Earnings vs Market: NWOR's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-14.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: NWOR's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: Insufficient data to determine if NWOR's revenue is forecast to grow faster than the UK market.

High Growth Revenue: Insufficient data to determine if NWOR's revenue is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if NWOR's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has National World performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

108.7%

Last years revenue growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: NWOR has a large one-off loss of £4.1M impacting its July 2 2022 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: NWOR became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: Insufficient data to determine if NWOR's year-on-year earnings growth rate was positive over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: NWOR has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: NWOR has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Interactive Media and Services industry (22.9%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: NWOR's Return on Equity (29.2%) is considered high.

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Financial Health

How is National World's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: NWOR's short term assets (£38.8M) exceed its short term liabilities (£20.0M).

Long Term Liabilities: NWOR's short term assets (£38.8M) exceed its long term liabilities (£2.0M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: NWOR has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if NWOR's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: NWOR's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (1140%).

Interest Coverage: NWOR's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (34.7x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is National World current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

2.97%

Forecast Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate NWOR's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate NWOR's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if NWOR's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if NWOR's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as NWOR has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.1yrs

Average board tenure

CEO

David Montgomery (74 yo)

no data

Tenure

UK£173,000

Compensation

Mr. David John Montgomery, BA serves as Chief Executive Officer of Local World Limited. Mr. Montgomery serves as the Chief Executive Officer of Yava Ltd. He serves as Executive Chairman since May 29, 2019...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: David's total compensation ($USD208.38K) is below average for companies of similar size in the UK market ($USD336.69K).

Compensation vs Earnings: David's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Board Members

Experienced Board: NWOR's board of directors are considered experienced (3.1 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/07 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/05 00:00
Earnings	2022/07/02
Annual Earnings	2022/01/01