LSE:POG

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Petropavlovsk PLC operates as a gold exploration, development, and mining company in the Russian Far East.

Snowflake

Fundamentals

Very undervalued with reasonable growth potential.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Petropavlovsk's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-1.9%

POG

3.5%

GB Metals and Mining

2.0%

GB Market


1 Year Return

59.3%

POG

4.6%

GB Metals and Mining

3.3%

GB Market

Return vs Industry: POG exceeded the UK Metals and Mining industry which returned 4.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: POG exceeded the UK Market which returned 3.3% over the past year.


Share holder returns

POGIndustryMarket
7 Day-1.9%3.5%2.0%
30 Day-2.2%-4.3%-1.0%
90 Day0.2%-8.7%-1.7%
1 Year59.3%59.3%13.4%4.6%8.3%3.3%
3 Year26.1%26.1%61.6%35.6%19.0%4.5%
5 Year14.8%-58.9%50.6%23.1%38.4%8.4%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Petropavlovsk's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Petropavlovsk undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

>50%

Discount to future cash flow value


Intrinsic Value Based on Future Cash Flows

Undervalued: POG (£0.1) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£0.45)

Significantly Undervalued: POG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price Based on Earnings

PE vs Industry: POG is good value based on its PE Ratio (5.1x) compared to the Metals and Mining industry average (8.9x).

PE vs Market: POG is good value based on its PE Ratio (5.1x) compared to the UK market (16.4x).


Price Based on Expected Growth

Low PEG Ratio: POG is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.2x)


Price Based on Value of Assets

PB vs Industry: POG is good value based on its PB Ratio (0.7x) compared to the GB Metals and Mining industry average (1x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Petropavlovsk expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 6 analysts?

22.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Estimates


Future Annual Growth Analysis

Earnings vs Savings Rate: POG's forecast earnings growth (22.8% per year) is above the savings rate (1.2%).

Earnings vs Market: POG's earnings (22.8% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the UK market (12.3% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: POG's revenue (6.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: POG's revenue (6.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Estimates


Future Return on Equity

High Future ROE: POG's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (12.4%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Petropavlovsk performed over the past 5 years?

48.3%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: POG's earnings have grown significantly by 48.3% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: POG has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: POG has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Metals and Mining industry (3.8%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: POG's Return on Equity (13.2%) is considered low.


Return on Assets

ROA vs Industry: POG's Return on Assets is below or equal to the Metals and Mining industry average last year.


Return on Capital Employed

ROCE Improving: POG has significantly improved its Return on Capital Employed over the past 3 years.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Petropavlovsk's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: POG's short term assets ($325.2M) do not cover its short term liabilities ($348.2M)

Long Term Liabilities: POG's short term assets (325.2M) do not cover its long term liabilities (676.7M)


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: POG's debt to equity ratio (99%) is considered high

Reducing Debt: POG's debt to equity ratio has increased from 98.1% to 99% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: POG's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (15.2%).

Interest Coverage: POG's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (3.4x coverage).


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: POG has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: POG's debt is not covered by short term assets (assets are 0.5x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Petropavlovsk's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

0.62%

Expected Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company0%marketbottom25%2.0%markettop25%5.4%industryaverage3.9%forecastin3Years0.6%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry


Dividend Yield and Payments Analysis

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate POG's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate POG's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if POG's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if POG's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: POG is not paying a notable dividend for .


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of POG's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the UK market.


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of Petropavlovsk's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

1.5yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Pavel Maslovskiy (63yo)

1.3yrs

Tenure

US$977,428

Compensation

Dr. Pavel Alexeyevich Maslovskiy has been a Director and Chief Executive Officer of Petropavlovsk PLC since June 29, 2018. Dr. Maslovskiy is Co-Founder of Petropavlovsk plc and served as its Chief Executiv ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs. Market: Pavel has recently become CEO, making it difficult to compare their total compensation against companies of similar size in the UK market.

Compensation vs Earnings: Pavel's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Management Age and Tenure

1.5yrs

Average Tenure

63yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: POG's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.5 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Age and Tenure

1.3yrs

Average Tenure

63yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: POG's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.3 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

BuyUS$24,95026 Jun 19
Robert John Jenkins
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Non-Executive Director
Shares250,000
Max PriceUS$0.10
BuyUS$24,87526 Jun 19
Harry Kenyon-Slaney
EntityIndividual
Role
Lead Director
Senior Independent Director
Shares250,000
Max PriceUS$0.10

Ownership Breakdown


Management Team

  • Sergey Ermolenko (66yo)

    General Director of Management Company Petropavlovsk

    • Tenure: 1.5yrs
    • Compensation: US$495.40k
  • Peter Charles Percival Hambro (74yo)

    Senior Adviser to the Board

    • Tenure: 0yrs
    • Compensation: US$980.27k
  • Alexey Maslvoskiy

    Group Head of Business Development

    • Tenure: 13.3yrs
    • Compensation: US$157.79k
  • Pavel Maslovskiy (63yo)

    CEO & Director

    • Tenure: 1.3yrs
    • Compensation: US$977.43k
  • Nikolai Vlasov

    Group Chief Geologist

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Andrey Maruta (43yo)

    Consultant

    • Tenure: 1.5yrs
    • Compensation: US$414.01k
  • Patrick Pittaway

    Head of Investor Relations

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Dmitry Chekashkin

    Chief Operating Officer

    • Tenure: 6.4yrs
    • Compensation: US$100.00k
  • Anna-Karolina Subczynska-Samberger (41yo)

    Group Head of Legal Affairs

    • Tenure: 0yrs
    • Compensation: US$221.36k
  • Alexey Dubynin

    Chief Financial Officer

    • Tenure: 1.3yrs

Board Members

  • George Hambro (44yo)

    Non Executive Chairman of IRC

    • Tenure: 9.8yrs
    • Compensation: US$19.20k
  • Pavel Maslovskiy (63yo)

    CEO & Director

    • Tenure: 1.3yrs
    • Compensation: US$977.43k
  • Robert John Jenkins (65yo)

    Non-Executive Director

    • Tenure: 1.3yrs
    • Compensation: US$42.83k
  • Harry Kenyon-Slaney (58yo)

    Senior Independent Director

    • Tenure: 0.5yrs
    • Compensation: US$11.35k
  • Damien Hackett

    Independent Non-Executive Director

    • Tenure: 1yrs
    • Compensation: US$15.87k
  • Roderic Michael Lyne (70yo)

    Non-Executive Chairman

    • Tenure: 1.3yrs
    • Compensation: US$75.58k
  • Michael Shelkov

    Deputy Chairman of Peter Hambro Mining

    • Tenure: 12.1yrs
  • James Cameron

    Independent Non-Executive Director

    • Tenure: 1yrs
    • Compensation: US$15.87k

Company Information

Petropavlovsk PLC's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Petropavlovsk PLC
  • Ticker: POG
  • Exchange: LSE
  • Founded: 1994
  • Industry: Gold
  • Sector: Materials
  • Market Cap: UK£320.097m
  • Shares outstanding: 3.31b
  • Website: https://www.petropavlovsk.net

Number of Employees


Location

  • Petropavlovsk PLC
  • 11 Grosvenor Place
  • Belgravia
  • London
  • Greater London
  • SW1X 7HH
  • United Kingdom

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
POGLSE (London Stock Exchange)YesOrdinary SharesGBGBPApr 2002
PHZDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesOrdinary SharesDEEURApr 2002
POGLBATS-CHIXE (BATS 'Chi-X Europe')YesOrdinary SharesGBGBPApr 2002

Biography

Petropavlovsk PLC operates as a gold exploration, development, and mining company in the Russian Far East. The company’s principal mining assets include Pioneer, Albyn, Pokrovskiy, and Malomir located in t ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2019/10/13 20:41
End of Day Share Price2019/10/11 00:00
Earnings2019/06/30
Annual Earnings2018/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

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