I use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of varying growth rates for the company’s cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a more stable growth phase. To start off with we need to estimate the next five years of cash flows. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. I then discount this to its value today and sum up the total to get the present value of these cash flows.
5-year cash flow estimate
|Levered FCF (GEL, Millions)||GEL62.84||GEL106.35||GEL124.68||GEL124.56||GEL106.12|
|Source||Analyst x2||Analyst x4||Analyst x4||Analyst x2||Analyst x1|
|Present Value Discounted @ 8.28%||GEL58.03||GEL90.71||GEL98.21||GEL90.62||GEL71.30|
Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= UK£408.87m
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of the GDP. In this case I have used the 10-year government bond rate (1.4%). In the same way as with the 5-year ‘growth’ period, we discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 8.3%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£106.12m × (1 + 1.4%) ÷ (8.3% – 1.4%) = UK£1.56b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = UK£1.56b / ( 1 + 8.3%)5 = UK£1.05b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next five years and the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is UK£1.46b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. If the stock is an depositary receipt (represents a specified number of shares in a foreign corporation) or ADR then we use the equivalent number. This results in an intrinsic value in the company’s reported currency of GEL11.32. However, GHG’s primary listing is in United Kingdom, and 1 share of GHG in GEL represents 0.304 ( GEL/ GBP) share of LSE:GHG, so the intrinsic value per share in GBP is £3.45. Compared to the current share price of £2.35, the stock is quite undervalued at a 31.79% discount to what it is available for right now.
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don’t agree with my result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. Because we are looking at Georgia Healthcare Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 8.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For GHG, there are three fundamental factors you should further examine:
- Financial Health: Does GHG have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does GHG’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of GHG? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow for every stock on the LON every 6 hours. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.