Stock Analysis

What Does Associated British Foods plc's (LON:ABF) Share Price Indicate?

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LSE:ABF
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Today we're going to take a look at the well-established Associated British Foods plc (LON:ABF). The company's stock received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the LSE over the last few months, increasing to UK£23.67 at one point, and dropping to the lows of UK£19.30. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Associated British Foods' current trading price of UK£19.70 reflective of the actual value of the large-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Associated British Foods’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.

Check out our latest analysis for Associated British Foods

What's the opportunity in Associated British Foods?

Associated British Foods appears to be expensive according to my price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 38.94x is currently well-above the industry average of 16.6x, meaning that it is trading at a more expensive price relative to its peers. But, is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Given that Associated British Foods’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

Can we expect growth from Associated British Foods?

earnings-and-revenue-growth
LSE:ABF Earnings and Revenue Growth September 11th 2021

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. Associated British Foods' earnings over the next few years are expected to double, indicating a very optimistic future ahead. This should lead to stronger cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? ABF’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading above industry price multiples. However, this brings up another question – is now the right time to sell? If you believe ABF should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on ABF for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for ABF, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Associated British Foods at this point in time. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 1 warning sign with Associated British Foods, and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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