TransGlobe Energy (AIM:TGL) - Share price, News & Analysis

TGL fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	3/6

TGL Stock Overview

TransGlobe Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas in Egypt and Canada.

Rewards

Trading at 75.9% below our estimate of its fair value

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 105.3% per year for the next 3 years

Unstable dividend track record

TransGlobe Energy Competitors

Tullow Oil

LSE:TLW

UK£808.8m

Seplat Energy

LSE:SEPL

UK£721.3m

Capricorn Energy

LSE:CNE

UK£650.7m

EnQuest

LSE:ENQ

UK£602.0m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for TransGlobe Energy
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$3.54
52 Week High	US$3.80
52 Week Low	US$1.00
Beta	2.61
1 Month Change	26.43%
3 Month Change	60.91%
1 Year Change	214.67%
3 Year Change	136.00%
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	69.78%

Shareholder Returns

	TGL	GB Oil and Gas	GB Market
7D	5.7%	-2.8%	-0.6%
1Y	214.7%	15.1%	-0.8%

Return vs Industry: TGL exceeded the UK Oil and Gas industry which returned 15.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: TGL exceeded the UK Market which returned -0.8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is TGL's price volatile compared to industry and market?
TGL volatility
TGL Average Weekly Movement	8.4%
Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement	9.4%
Market Average Movement	6.0%
10% most volatile stocks in GB Market	11.7%
10% least volatile stocks in GB Market	3.0%

Stable Share Price: TGL is not significantly more volatile than the rest of UK stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.

Volatility Over Time: TGL's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1968	55	Randy Neely	https://www.trans-globe.com

TransGlobe Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas in Egypt and Canada. The company holds interests in four production sharing concessions, which include West Gharib, West Bakr, NW Gharib, and South Ghazalat, Egypt; and owns production and working interests in facilities in the Cardium light oil and Mannville liquid-rich gas assets in the Harmattan area of west central Alberta, Canada. TransGlobe Energy Corporation was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

TransGlobe Energy Fundamentals Summary

How do TransGlobe Energy's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
TGL fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$320.35m
Earnings (TTM)	US$40.34m
Revenue (TTM)	US$169.01m

7.9x

P/E Ratio

1.9x

P/S Ratio

Is TGL overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
TGL income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$169.01m
Cost of Revenue	US$76.15m
Gross Profit	US$92.85m
Other Expenses	US$52.52m
Earnings	US$40.34m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.55
Gross Margin	54.94%
Net Profit Margin	23.87%
Debt/Equity Ratio	1.7%

How did TGL perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

2.3%

Current Dividend Yield

18%

Payout Ratio

Valuation

Is TransGlobe Energy undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: TGL (£3.54) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£14.71)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TGL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: TGL is good value based on its PE Ratio (7.9x) compared to the UK Oil and Gas industry average (12x).

PE vs Market: TGL is good value based on its PE Ratio (7.9x) compared to the UK market (16.3x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: TGL's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: TGL is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (1.8x) compared to the GB Oil and Gas industry average (1.2x).

Future Growth

How is TransGlobe Energy forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-105.3%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TGL's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-105.3% per year).

Earnings vs Market: TGL's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-105.3% per year).

High Growth Earnings: TGL's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: TGL's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-8.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TGL's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-8.2% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if TGL's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

Past Performance

How has TransGlobe Energy performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

34.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: TGL has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: TGL became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: TGL has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 34.1% per year.

Accelerating Growth: TGL has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: TGL has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Oil and Gas industry (344.7%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: TGL's Return on Equity (22.6%) is considered high.

Financial Health

How is TransGlobe Energy's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: TGL's short term assets ($54.2M) exceed its short term liabilities ($33.1M).

Long Term Liabilities: TGL's short term assets ($54.2M) exceed its long term liabilities ($27.4M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: TGL has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: TGL's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 29.4% to 1.7% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: TGL's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (1479%).

Interest Coverage: TGL's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (56.5x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is TransGlobe Energy current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

2.29%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: TGL's dividend (2.29%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (1.74%).

High Dividend: TGL's dividend (2.29%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (4.65%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: TGL has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile.

Growing Dividend: TGL has only been paying a dividend for 8 years, and since then payments have fallen.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (18%), TGL's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonably low cash payout ratio (40.4%), TGL's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

Next Steps

Explore strong dividend paying companies in the Energy industry.

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Randy Neely (55 yo)

4.33yrs

Tenure

US$1,249,587

Compensation

Mr. Randall C. Neely, also known as Randy, CPA ("CA"), CFA, ICD D., has been President and Chief Executive Officer of TransGlobe Energy Corporation since January 11, 2018 and January 1, 2019, respectively...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Randy's total compensation ($USD1.25M) is above average for companies of similar size in the UK market ($USD937.69K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Randy's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: TGL's management team is considered experienced (4.3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: TGL's board of directors are considered experienced (3.6 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: TGL insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/02 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/04/29 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31