LSE:TCG

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Thomas Cook Group plc provides travel services in the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, and Northern Europe.


Snowflake Analysis

Moderate growth potential and slightly overvalued.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Thomas Cook Group's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: TCG's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-23.2%

TCG

0.2%

GB Hospitality

0.05%

GB Market


1 Year Return

-94.2%

TCG

15.7%

GB Hospitality

7.1%

GB Market

Return vs Industry: TCG underperformed the UK Hospitality industry which returned 20.2% over the past year.

Return vs Market: TCG underperformed the UK Market which returned 12.7% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

TCGIndustryMarket
7 Day-23.2%0.2%0.05%
30 Day-50.9%0.8%-1.7%
90 Day-75.7%0.7%4.1%
1 Year-94.2%-94.2%19.0%15.7%12.6%7.1%
3 Year-95.0%-95.1%33.0%19.8%18.4%3.6%
5 Year-97.1%-97.1%48.9%25.5%35.2%4.2%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Thomas Cook Group's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Thomas Cook Group undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: TCG (£0.03) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£1.5)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TCG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: TCG is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the Hospitality industry average.

PE vs Market: TCG is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the UK market.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate TCG's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: TCG has negative assets, so we can't compare its PB Ratio to the GB Hospitality industry average.


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Thomas Cook Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 6 analysts?

81.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TCG is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.2%).

Earnings vs Market: TCG is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: TCG's is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: TCG's revenue (1.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the UK market (3.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TCG's revenue (1.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if TCG's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Thomas Cook Group performed over the past 5 years?

-49.2%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: TCG is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: TCG is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: TCG is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of -49.2% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare TCG's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: TCG is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Hospitality industry (4.9%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: TCG's liabilities exceed its assets, so it is difficult to calculate its Return on Equity.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Thomas Cook Group's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: TCG has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than short term assets not covering short term liabilities.

Long Term Liabilities: TCG has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than short term assets not covering long term liabilities.


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: TCG has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than a high debt level.

Reducing Debt: TCG's has negative shareholder equity, so we do not need to check if its debt has reduced over time.


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: TCG has a low level of unsold assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: TCG has negative shareholder equity (liabilities exceed assets) therefore debt is not covered by short term assets.


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if TCG has enough cash runway based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if TCG has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Thomas Cook Group's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

1.09%

Forecast Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company0%marketbottom25%1.8%markettop25%5.1%industryaverage2.5%forecastin3Years1.1%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate TCG's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate TCG's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if TCG's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if TCG's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: TCG is not paying a notable dividend for the UK market.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of TCG's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the UK market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.8yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Peter Fankhauser (59yo)

4.8yrs

Tenure

UK£1,024,000

Compensation

Dr. Peter Fankhauser has been the Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director of Thomas Cook Group plc since November 26, 2014 and also has been its Chairman of Management Board and Chief Executive Offi ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Peter's total compensation ($USD1.28M) is above average for companies of similar size in the UK market ($USD326.78K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Peter's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Peter Fankhauser
CEO & Executive Director4.8yrsUK£1.02m0.16% £86.4k
Sten Daugaard
Group CFO & Executive Director0.8yrsno datano data
Neil Dudleston
Chief Information Security Officer0yrsno datano data
James Sandford
Group Head of Investor Relations0yrsno datano data
Alice Marsden
Group General Counsel & Company Secretary3.6yrsno datano data
Ong-Seng Nick
Thomas Cook Money Risk & Compliance Director0yrsno datano data
Matthew Magee
Head of Corporate Communications0yrsno datano data
Julie Armstrong
Group HR Director0yrsno datano data
Christoph Debus
Chief Air Travel & Hotels Officer7yrsno datano data
Tim Van Genechten
Group Head of Brand & Strategic Marketing 4.9yrsno datano data

4.8yrs

Average Tenure

Experienced Management: TCG's management team is considered experienced (4.8 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Peter Fankhauser
CEO & Executive Director4.8yrsUK£1.02m0.16% £86.4k
Sten Daugaard
Group CFO & Executive Director0.8yrsno datano data
Frank L. Meysman
Non-Executive Chairman 7.8yrsUK£307.00k0.070% £36.9k
Lesley Mary Knox
Senior Independent Director0.4yrsUK£61.00k0.017% £8.8k
Martine Verluyten
Independent Non-Executive Director8.3yrsUK£89.00k0.011% £5.7k
Emre Berkin
Independent Non-Executive Director6.8yrsUK£84.00kno data
James Wilson
Independent Non-Executive Director0.3yrsno datano data
Jürgen Schreiber
Independent Non-Executive Director2.2yrsUK£60.00kno data
Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson
Independent Non-Executive Director2.2yrsUK£63.00k0.0012% £613.9

2.2yrs

Average Tenure

60.5yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: TCG's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.2 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Thomas Cook Group plc's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Thomas Cook Group plc
  • Ticker: TCG
  • Exchange: LSE
  • Founded: 1841
  • Industry: Hotels, Resorts and Cruise Lines
  • Sector: Consumer Services
  • Market Cap: UK£52.926m
  • Shares outstanding: 1.53b
  • Website: https://www.thomascookgroup.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Thomas Cook Group plc
  • South Building
  • 3rd Floor
  • London
  • Greater London
  • EC1A 4HD
  • United Kingdom

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
TCGLSE (London Stock Exchange)YesBearer SharesGBGBPJun 2007
TCGDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesBearer SharesDEEURJun 2007
TCKG.FOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)YesBearer SharesUSUSDJun 2007
TCGLBATS-CHIXE (BATS 'Chi-X Europe')YesBearer SharesGBGBPJun 2007
TCKG.YOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)UNSPONSORED ADRUSUSDOct 2008

Biography

Thomas Cook Group plc provides travel services in the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, and Northern Europe. The company operates through Group Tour Operator and Group Airline segments. It owns, manages, or franchises 270 hotels primarily under the Casa Cook, Cook’s Club, and Sunwing brands. As of December 12, 2018, the company operated an airline fleet of 101 aircrafts to 120 destinations. Thomas Cook Group plc was founded in 1841 and is based in London, the United Kingdom. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2019/09/24 21:05
End of Day Share Price2019/09/23 00:00
Earnings2019/03/31
Annual Earnings2018/09/30


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.