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GRG

GreggsLSE:GRG Stock Report

Market Cap

UK£3.1b

7D

2.5%

1Y

68.2%

Updated

03 Dec, 2021

Data

Company Financials +
GRG fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation0/6
Future Growth3/6
Past Performance5/6
Financial Health5/6
Dividends3/6

GRG Stock Overview

Greggs plc operates as a bakery food-on-the-go retailer in the United Kingdom.

Rewards

Earnings are forecast to grow 9.44% per year

Earnings grew by 2352.3% over the past year

Risk Analysis

No risks detected for GRG from our risk checks.

Greggs Competitors

J D Wetherspoon

LSE:JDW

UK£1.0b

Kerry Group

ISE:KRZ

€19.1b

Hilton Food Group

LSE:HFG

UK£948.6m

Premier Foods

LSE:PFD

UK£901.2m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Greggs
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUK£30.61
52 Week HighUK£32.18
52 Week LowUK£16.20
Beta1.1
1 Month Change-0.16%
3 Month Change0.068%
1 Year Change68.19%
3 Year Change126.41%
5 Year Change225.30%
Change since IPO7,591.16%

Recent News & Updates

Nov 28
Returns On Capital At Greggs (LON:GRG) Paint A Concerning Picture

Returns On Capital At Greggs (LON:GRG) Paint A Concerning Picture

What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term...

Oct 17
Is There Now An Opportunity In Greggs plc (LON:GRG)?

Is There Now An Opportunity In Greggs plc (LON:GRG)?

Greggs plc ( LON:GRG ), is not the largest company out there, but it led the LSE gainers with a relatively large price...

Aug 26
Greggs (LON:GRG) Might Be Having Difficulty Using Its Capital Effectively

Greggs (LON:GRG) Might Be Having Difficulty Using Its Capital Effectively

If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an...

Shareholder Returns

GRGGB HospitalityGB Market
7D2.5%1.0%1.0%
1Y68.2%8.5%9.4%

Return vs Industry: GRG exceeded the UK Hospitality industry which returned 8.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: GRG exceeded the UK Market which returned 10.5% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is GRG's price volatile compared to industry and market?
GRG volatility
GRG Average Weekly Movement5.0%
Hospitality Industry Average Movement5.1%
Market Average Movement4.9%
10% most volatile stocks in GB Market10.0%
10% least volatile stocks in GB Market2.6%

Stable Share Price: GRG is not significantly more volatile than the rest of UK stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: GRG's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
193921,538Roger Whitesidehttps://corporate.greggs.co.uk

Greggs plc operates as a bakery food-on-the-go retailer in the United Kingdom. It offers a range of fresh and frozen bakery products, sandwiches, and drinks. The company sells its products through its shops in travel, leisure, and work-centered catchments; and franchised shops operated by partners in travel and other convenience locations.

Greggs Fundamentals Summary

How do Greggs's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
GRG fundamental statistics
Market CapUK£3.11b
Earnings (TTM)UK£85.20m
Revenue (TTM)UK£1.06b

36.5x

P/E Ratio

2.9x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
GRG income statement (TTM)
RevenueUK£1.06b
Cost of RevenueUK£373.70m
Gross ProfitUK£683.20m
ExpensesUK£598.00m
EarningsUK£85.20m

Last Reported Earnings

Jul 03, 2021

Next Earnings Date

Mar 08, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)0.84
Gross Margin64.64%
Net Profit Margin8.06%
Debt/Equity Ratio0%

How did GRG perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

1.0%

Current Dividend Yield

18%

Payout Ratio

Valuation

Is Greggs undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

36.46x

Price to Earnings (PE) ratio


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: GRG (£30.61) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£12.72)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GRG is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: GRG is poor value based on its PE Ratio (36.5x) compared to the UK Hospitality industry average (30.7x).

PE vs Market: GRG is poor value based on its PE Ratio (36.5x) compared to the UK market (19.3x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: GRG is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (3.9x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: GRG is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (8.1x) compared to the GB Hospitality industry average (2.1x).


Future Growth

How is Greggs forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 8 analysts?

9.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: GRG's forecast earnings growth (9.4% per year) is above the savings rate (0.9%).

Earnings vs Market: GRG's earnings (9.4% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the UK market (12.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: GRG's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: GRG's revenue (12.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (4.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: GRG's revenue (12.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: GRG's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (25.2%)


Past Performance

How has Greggs performed over the past 5 years?

-9.8%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: GRG has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: GRG's current net profit margins (8.1%) are higher than last year (0.4%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: GRG's earnings have declined by 9.8% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: GRG's earnings growth over the past year (2352.3%) exceeds its 5-year average (-9.8% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: GRG earnings growth over the past year (2352.3%) exceeded the Hospitality industry 197.6%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: GRG's Return on Equity (22.1%) is considered high.


Financial Health

How is Greggs's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: GRG's short term assets (£179.4M) exceed its short term liabilities (£169.3M).

Long Term Liabilities: GRG's short term assets (£179.4M) do not cover its long term liabilities (£253.3M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: GRG is debt free.

Reducing Debt: GRG had no debt 5 years ago.

Debt Coverage: GRG has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: GRG has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.


Balance Sheet


Dividend

What is Greggs's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

0.98%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: GRG's dividend (0.98%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (1.38%).

High Dividend: GRG's dividend (0.98%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (4.17%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: GRG's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: GRG's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its low payout ratio (17.8%), GRG's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: GRG's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (47.1% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

10.3yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Roger Whiteside (63 yo)

8.83yrs

Tenure

UK£645,075

Compensation

Mr. Roger Whiteside, OBE, has been the Chief Executive of Greggs plc since February 4, 2013. Mr. Whiteside served as the Chief Executive Officer of Punch Taverns plc from August 2011 to February 1, 2013. H...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Roger's total compensation ($USD852.94K) is below average for companies of similar size in the UK market ($USD1.75M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Roger's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: GRG's management team is seasoned and experienced (10.3 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: GRG's board of directors are considered experienced (7.9 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Greggs plc's employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Greggs plc
  • Ticker: GRG
  • Exchange: LSE
  • Founded: 1939
  • Industry: Restaurants
  • Sector: Consumer Services
  • Market Cap: UK£3.106b
  • Shares outstanding: 101.47m
  • Website: https://corporate.greggs.co.uk

Number of Employees


Location

  • Greggs plc
  • Greggs House
  • Quorum Business Park
  • Newcastle upon Tyne
  • Tyne and Wear
  • NE12 8BU
  • United Kingdom

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2021/12/03 21:15
End of Day Share Price2021/12/03 00:00
Earnings2021/07/03
Annual Earnings2021/01/02


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.