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Carnival

LSE:CCL
Snowflake Description

Proven track record and fair value.

The Snowflake is generated from 30 checks in 5 different areas, read more below.
CCL
LSE
£28B
Market Cap
  1. Home
  2. GB
  3. Consumer Services
Company description

Carnival plc operates as a leisure travel company in North America, Australia, Europe, and Asia. The last earnings update was 67 days ago. More info.


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CCL Share Price and Events
7 Day Returns
2.7%
LSE:CCL
1.6%
GB Hospitality
0.4%
GB Market
1 Year Returns
-15.8%
LSE:CCL
-3.9%
GB Hospitality
-3.7%
GB Market
CCL Shareholder Return
  7 Day 30 Day 90 Day 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Carnival (CCL) 2.7% -1.2% -3.2% -15.8% 18.5% 75.4%
GB Hospitality 1.6% 4.3% 2.7% -3.9% 18.3% 35.3%
GB Market 0.4% 1% 1.6% -3.7% 19% 3.4%
1 Year Return vs Industry and Market
  • CCL underperformed the Hospitality industry which returned -3.9% over the past year.
  • CCL underperformed the Market in United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland which returned -3.7% over the past year.
Price Volatility
CCL
Industry
5yr Volatility vs Market

Value

 Is Carnival undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

Value is all about what a company is worth versus what price it is available for. If you went into a grocery store and all the bananas were on sale at half price, they could be considered undervalued.
INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS
Here we compare the current share price of Carnival to its discounted cash flow analysis.value.

The discounted cash flow value is simply looking at what the company is worth today, based on estimates of how much money it is expected to make in the future.
Raw Data

Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Carnival.

LSE:CCL Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 8 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 8.6%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year GB Government Bond Rate 1.2%

An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for LSE:CCL
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year GB Govt Bond Rate 1.2%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 6.7%
Hospitality Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 0.92
Re-levered Beta = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 0.921 (1 + (1- 19%) (33.05%))
1.112
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm)
1.11
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 1.23% + (1.112 * 6.65%)
8.62%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for LSE:CCL using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Carnival is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

LSE:CCL DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (USD, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 8.62%)
2019 643.00 Analyst x2 591.96
2020 1,626.00 Analyst x2 1,378.13
2021 3,282.00 Analyst x1 2,560.89
2022 3,653.00 Analyst x1 2,624.14
2023 3,940.22 Est @ 7.86% 2,605.80
2024 4,171.59 Est @ 5.87% 2,539.84
2025 4,358.41 Est @ 4.48% 2,442.97
2026 4,511.09 Est @ 3.5% 2,327.85
2027 4,638.31 Est @ 2.82% 2,203.52
2028 4,746.95 Est @ 2.34% 2,076.14
Present value of next 10 years cash flows $21,351.24
LSE:CCL DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value = FCF2028 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= $4,746.95 × (1 + 1.23%) ÷ (8.62% – 1.23%)
$64,983.34
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
= $64,983.34 ÷ (1 + 8.62%)10
$28,421.30
LSE:CCL Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= $21,351.24 + $28,421.30
$49,772.54
Equity Value per Share
(USD)
= Total value / Shares Outstanding
= $49,772.54 / 690.68
$72.06
LSE:CCL Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Exchange Rate USD/GBP
(Reporting currency to currency of LSE:CCL)
0.793
Value per Share
(GBP)
= Value per Share in USD x Exchange Rate (USD/GBP)
= $72.06 x 0.793
£57.17
Value per share (GBP) From above. £57.17
Current discount Discount to share price of £40.33
= -1 x (£40.33 - £57.17) / £57.17
29.5%

Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model .

Current Discount
Amount off the current price Carnival is available for.
Intrinsic value
29%
Share price is £40.33 vs Future cash flow value of £57.17
Current Discount Checks
For Carnival to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the current price. Less than 40% is even better.
  • Carnival's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
  • Carnival's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a substantial discount (< 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.

The amount the stock market is willing to pay for Carnival's earnings, growth and assets is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Are Carnival's earnings available for a low price, and how does this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Raw Data
LSE:CCL PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Earnings Per Share * Company Filings (2019-02-28) in USD $4.41
LSE:CCL Share Price ** LSE (2019-06-14) in GBP £40.33
LSE:CCL Share Price converted to USD reporting currency Exchange rate (GBP/ USD) 1.261 $50.84
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Hospitality Industry PE Ratio Median Figure of 34 Publicly-Listed Hospitality Companies 17.49x
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Market PE Ratio Median Figure of 789 Publicly-Listed Companies 16.17x

* Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual GAAP earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.

** Primary Listing of Carnival.

LSE:CCL PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PE Ratio

= LSE:CCL Share Price ÷ EPS (both in USD)

= 50.84 ÷ 4.41

11.54x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Carnival is good value based on earnings compared to the GB Hospitality industry average.
  • Carnival is good value based on earnings compared to the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland market.
Price based on expected Growth
Does Carnival's expected growth come at a high price?
Raw Data
LSE:CCL PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
PE Ratio See PE Ratio Section 11.54x
Net Income Annual Growth Rate See Future Growth Section.
Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 8 Analysts
10.8%per year
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Hospitality Industry PEG Ratio Median Figure of 28 Publicly-Listed Hospitality Companies 2.37x
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Market PEG Ratio Median Figure of 576 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.48x

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

LSE:CCL PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PEG Ratio

= PE Ratio ÷ Net Income Annual Growth Rate

= 11.54x ÷ 10.8%

1.07x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Carnival is poor value based on expected growth next year.
Price based on value of assets
What value do investors place on Carnival's assets?
Raw Data
LSE:CCL PB (Price to Book) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Book Value per Share Company Filings (2019-02-28) in USD $35.08
LSE:CCL Share Price * LSE (2019-06-14) in GBP £40.33
LSE:CCL Share Price converted to USD reporting currency Exchange rate (GBP/ USD) 1.261 $50.84
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Hospitality Industry PB Ratio Median Figure of 55 Publicly-Listed Hospitality Companies 1.37x
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Market PB Ratio Median Figure of 1,371 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.48x
LSE:CCL PB (Price to Book) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PB Ratio

= LSE:CCL Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in USD)

= 50.84 ÷ 35.08

1.45x

* Primary Listing of Carnival.

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Carnival is overvalued based on assets compared to the GB Hospitality industry average.
X
Value checks
We assess Carnival's value by looking at:
  1. Is the discounted cash flow value less than 20%, or 40% of the share price? (2 checks) ( Click here or on bar chart for details of DCF calculation. )
  2. Is the PE ratio less than the market average, and/ or less than the Hospitality industry average (and greater than 0)? (2 checks)
  3. Is the PEG ratio within a reasonable range (0 to 1)? (1 check)
  4. Is the PB ratio less than the Hospitality industry average (and greater than 0)? (1 check)
  5. Carnival has a total score of 3/6, see the detailed checks below.

    Note: We use GAAP Earnings per Share in all our calculations including PE and PEG Ratio.

    Full details on the Value part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Future Performance

 How is Carnival expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 8 analysts?

The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past performance, by looking at estimated growth and how much profit it is expected to make.

Future estimates come from professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get it right!
Annual Growth Rate
10.8%
Expected annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
Is Carnival expected to grow at an attractive rate?
  • Carnival's earnings growth is expected to exceed the low risk savings rate of 1.2%.
Growth vs Market Checks
  • Carnival's earnings growth is expected to exceed the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland market average.
  • Carnival's revenue growth is expected to exceed the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland market average.
Annual Growth Rates Comparison
Raw Data
LSE:CCL Future Growth Rates Data Sources
Data Point Source Value (per year)
LSE:CCL Future Earnings Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 8 Analysts 10.8%
LSE:CCL Future Revenue Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 8 Analysts 6.8%
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Hospitality Industry Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 13.4%
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Hospitality Industry Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 5.7%
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Market Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 10.7%
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Market Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 5%

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Learn more about our growth rate calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.

Analysts growth expectations
Raw Data
LSE:CCL Analysts Growth Expectations Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (3 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 8 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
All numbers in USD Millions and using Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
LSE:CCL Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income * Avg. No. Analysts
2022-11-30 24,941 7,739 4,272 1
2021-11-30 23,029 7,148 4,084 6
2020-11-30 21,372 6,256 3,497 7
2019-11-30 20,076 5,797 3,140 6
LSE:CCL Past Financials Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income *
2019-02-28 19,323 5,601 3,097
2018-11-30 18,881 5,549 3,152
2018-08-31 18,684 5,460 3,205
2018-05-31 18,363 5,560 2,827
2018-02-28 17,951 5,454 2,645
2017-11-30 17,510 5,322 2,606
2017-08-31 17,186 5,322 2,668
2017-05-31 16,768 5,302 2,762
2017-02-28 16,529 5,268 2,989
2016-11-30 16,389 5,134 2,779
2016-08-31 16,165 5,088 2,441
2016-05-31 15,951 4,940 2,233

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Super high growth metrics
High Growth Checks
  • Carnival's earnings are expected to grow by 10.8% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
  • Carnival's revenue is expected to grow by 6.8% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Raw Data
LSE:CCL Past and Future Earnings per Share
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (3 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 8 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below

All data from Carnival Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

LSE:CCL Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) EPS * EPS High Estimate EPS Low Estimate Avg. No. Analysts
2022-11-30
2021-11-30 6.00 6.26 5.84 3.00
2020-11-30 5.07 5.20 4.86 6.00
2019-11-30 4.59 4.86 4.49 5.00
LSE:CCL Past Financials Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) EPS *
2019-02-28 4.41
2018-11-30 4.45
2018-08-31 4.50
2018-05-31 3.94
2018-02-28 3.67
2017-11-30 3.61
2017-08-31 3.68
2017-05-31 3.79
2017-02-28 4.07
2016-11-30 3.73
2016-08-31 3.23
2016-05-31 2.91

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance in 3 years
In the same way as past performance we look at the future estimated return (profit) compared to the available funds. We do this looking forward 3 years.
  • Carnival is not expected to efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future (Return on Equity less than 20%).
X
Future performance checks
We assess Carnival's future performance by looking at:
  1. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the low risk savings rate, plus a premium to keep pace with inflation?
  2. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in earnings of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland market? (1 check)
  3. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in revenue of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland market? (1 check)
  4. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  6. Is the Return on Equity in 3 years expected to be over 20%? (1 check)
Some of the above checks will fail if the company is expected to be loss making in the relevant year.
Carnival has a total score of 3/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note 1: We use GAAP Net Income Excluding Exceptional Items for our Earnings in all our calculations.

Full details on the Future part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Past Performance

  How has Carnival performed over the past 5 years?

The past performance of a company can be measured by how much growth it has experienced and how much profit it makes relative to the funds and assets it has available.
Past earnings growth
Below we compare Carnival's growth in the last year to its industry (Hospitality).
Past Earnings growth analysis
We also check if the company has grown in the past 5 years, and whether it has maintained that growth in the year.
  • Carnival has delivered over 20% year on year earnings growth in the past 5 years.
  • Carnival's 1-year earnings growth is less than its 5-year average (17.1% vs 21.5%)
  • Carnival's earnings growth has exceeded the GB Hospitality industry average in the past year (17.1% vs 8.9%).
Earnings and Revenue History
Carnival's revenue and profit over the past 5 years is shown below, any years where they have experienced a loss will show up in red.
Raw Data

All data from Carnival Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

LSE:CCL Past Revenue, Cash Flow and Net Income Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Net Income * G+A Expenses R&D Expenses
2019-02-28 19,323.00 3,097.00 2,463.00
2018-11-30 18,881.00 3,152.00 2,450.00
2018-08-31 18,684.00 3,205.00 2,410.00
2018-05-31 18,363.00 2,827.00 2,384.00
2018-02-28 17,951.00 2,645.00 2,332.00
2017-11-30 17,510.00 2,606.00 2,265.00
2017-08-31 17,186.00 2,668.00 2,233.00
2017-05-31 16,768.00 2,762.00 2,216.00
2017-02-28 16,529.00 2,989.00 2,195.00
2016-11-30 16,389.00 2,779.00 2,197.00
2016-08-31 16,165.00 2,441.00 2,196.00
2016-05-31 15,951.00 2,233.00 2,150.00
2016-02-29 15,834.00 1,850.00 2,109.00
2015-11-30 15,714.00 1,757.00 2,087.00
2015-08-31 15,722.00 1,384.00 2,051.00
2015-05-31 15,786.00 1,409.00 2,049.00
2015-02-28 15,830.00 1,285.00 2,062.00
2014-11-30 15,884.00 1,216.00 2,054.00
2014-08-31 15,823.00 1,385.00 2,039.00
2014-05-31 15,602.00 1,078.00 1,996.00
2014-02-28 15,448.00 1,021.00 1,940.00
2013-11-30 15,456.00 1,055.00 1,879.00
2013-08-31 15,376.00 1,105.00 1,806.00
2013-05-31 15,334.00 1,501.00 1,776.00
2013-02-28 15,393.00 1,474.00 1,759.00
2012-11-30 15,382.00 1,298.00 1,720.00
2012-08-31 15,501.00 1,422.00 1,696.00

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance last year
We want to ensure a company is making the most of what it has available. This is done by comparing the return (profit) to a company's available funds, assets and capital.
  • Carnival has not efficiently used shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity less than 20%).
  • Carnival used its assets more efficiently than the GB Hospitality industry average last year based on Return on Assets.
  • Carnival has significantly improved its use of capital last year versus 3 years ago (Return on Capital Employed).
X
Past performance checks
We assess Carnival's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
  1. Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
  2. Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the Hospitality industry? (1 check)
  3. Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
  6. Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
Carnival has a total score of 4/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.

Full details on the Past part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Health

 How is Carnival's financial health and their level of debt?

A company's financial position is much like your own financial position, it includes everything you own (assets) and owe (liabilities).

The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up Carnival's finances.

The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Net Worth
  • Carnival's short term (1 year) commitments are greater than its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
  • Carnival's long term commitments exceed its cash and other short term assets.
Balance sheet
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of Carnival's finances. If any of them are yellow this indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the checks below.
Assets
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
  • High level of physical assets or inventory.
  • Debt is not covered by short term assets, assets are 0.2x debt.
Historical Debt
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t bad, however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest on its debts this may have impacts in the future.

The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to see the red area (debt) decreasing.

If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Raw Data

All data from Carnival Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago.

LSE:CCL Past Debt and Equity Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Total Equity Total Debt Cash & Short Term Investments
2019-02-28 24,241.00 11,604.00 649.00
2018-11-30 24,443.00 10,342.00 982.00
2018-08-31 24,654.00 9,638.00 526.00
2018-05-31 23,933.00 9,879.00 1,053.00
2018-02-28 24,382.00 9,583.00 453.00
2017-11-30 24,216.00 9,222.00 395.00
2017-08-31 24,172.00 9,202.00 489.00
2017-05-31 22,964.00 9,448.00 597.00
2017-02-28 22,660.00 9,124.00 437.00
2016-11-30 22,597.00 9,432.00 603.00
2016-08-31 22,900.00 9,435.00 462.00
2016-05-31 22,791.00 9,470.00 519.00
2016-02-29 22,625.00 9,112.00 778.00
2015-11-30 23,771.00 8,825.00 1,397.00
2015-08-31 24,353.00 7,896.00 540.00
2015-05-31 23,252.00 8,309.00 300.00
2015-02-28 23,350.00 9,185.00 281.00
2014-11-30 24,204.00 9,136.00 332.00
2014-08-31 25,157.00 8,916.00 437.00
2014-05-31 24,365.00 9,474.00 345.00
2014-02-28 24,470.00 9,639.00 422.00
2013-11-30 24,556.00 9,586.00 463.00
2013-08-31 24,260.00 10,041.00 982.00
2013-05-31 23,280.00 9,883.00 711.00
2013-02-28 23,523.00 9,410.00 477.00
2012-11-30 23,929.00 8,926.00 465.00
2012-08-31 24,193.00 9,076.00 568.00
  • Carnival's level of debt (47.9%) compared to net worth is high (greater than 40%).
  • The level of debt compared to net worth has increased over the past 5 years (39.4% vs 47.9% today).
  • Debt is well covered by operating cash flow (48.3%, greater than 20% of total debt).
  • Interest payments on debt are well covered by earnings (EBIT is 18.3x coverage).
X
Financial health checks
We assess Carnival's financial health by checking for:
  1. Are short term assets greater than short term liabilities? (1 check)
  2. Are short term assets greater than long term liabilities? (1 check)
  3. Has the debt to equity ratio increased in the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the debt to equity ratio over 40%? (1 check)
  5. Is the debt covered by operating cash flow? (1 check)
  6. Are earnings greater than 5x the interest on debt (if company pays interest at all)? (1 check)
  7. Carnival has a total score of 2/6, see the detailed checks below.
For companies that are loss making and have been so on average in the past we replace the last 2 checks with:
  1. Does cash and short term investments cover stable operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
  2. Does cash and short term investments cover growing operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)


Full details on the Health part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Dividends

 What is Carnival's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividends are regular cash payments to you from the company, similar to a bank paying you interest on a savings account.
Annual Dividend Income
Dividend payments
3.93%
Current annual income from Carnival dividends. Estimated to be 4.57% next year.
If you bought £2,000 of Carnival shares you are expected to receive £79 in your first year as a dividend.
Dividend Amount
Here we look how much dividend is being paid, if any. Is it above what you can get in a savings account? It is up there with the best dividend paying companies?
  • Carnival's pays a higher dividend yield than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (1.97%).
  • Carnival's dividend is below the markets top 25% of dividend payers in United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (5.43%).
Annualized Historical and Future Dividends
It is important to see if the dividend for a company is stable, and not wildly increasing/decreasing each year. This graph shows you the historical rate to count toward your assessment of the stock.

We also check to see if the dividend has increased in the past 10 years.
Raw Data
LSE:CCL Annualized Past and Future Dividends
Data Point Source Value
Past Annualized Dividend Yield S&P Global Market Data See Below
Past Dividends per Share Company Filings/ Annualized Dividend Payments See Below
Future Dividends per Share Estimates Average of up to 8 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Hospitality Industry Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 31 Stocks 3.1%
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Market Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 705 Stocks 4.3%
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Minimum Threshold Dividend Yield 10th Percentile 1.1%
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Bottom 25% Dividend Yield 25th Percentile 2%
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Top 25% Dividend Yield 75th Percentile 5.4%

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Note all dividend per share amounts are annualized and not quarterly or other period.

LSE:CCL Future Dividends Estimate Data
Date (Data in $) Dividend per Share (annual) Avg. No. Analysts
2022-11-30 3.50 1.00
2021-11-30 2.54 7.00
2020-11-30 2.28 10.00
2019-11-30 2.10 10.00
LSE:CCL Past Annualized Dividends Data
Date (Data in $) Dividend per share (annual) Avg. Yield (%)
2019-04-18 2.000 3.914
2019-01-17 2.000 3.699
2018-12-20 2.000 4.033
2018-09-05 2.000 3.451
2018-04-11 2.000 3.279
2018-03-02 1.800 2.765
2017-10-19 1.800 2.703
2017-07-19 1.600 2.395
2017-04-07 1.600 2.539
2017-01-19 1.400 2.559
2016-10-20 1.400 2.802
2016-07-14 1.400 2.979
2016-04-14 1.400 2.854
2016-01-14 1.200 2.425
2015-10-16 1.200 2.227
2015-07-16 1.200 2.286
2015-04-16 1.000 2.028
2015-01-13 1.000 2.167
2014-10-14 1.000 2.411
2014-07-16 1.000 2.659
2014-04-22 1.000 2.552
2014-01-16 1.000 2.488
2013-10-15 1.000 2.706
2013-07-17 1.000 2.710
2013-04-17 1.000 2.837
2013-01-17 1.000 2.679
2012-10-09 1.000 2.531
2012-07-11 1.000 2.868
2012-04-12 1.000 3.051
2012-02-10 1.000 3.242
2011-10-11 1.000 3.015
2011-07-13 1.000 3.116
2011-04-13 1.000 2.555
2011-01-20 1.000 2.320
2010-10-19 0.400 0.908
2010-07-14 0.400 1.099
2010-04-14 0.400 1.060
2010-01-21 0.400 1.050
2009-12-18 0.000 0.000
2009-10-01 0.000 0.000
2009-09-22 0.000 0.000
2009-06-30 0.000 0.000
2009-06-18 0.000 0.000

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Whilst dividend payments have been stable, Carnival has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.
  • Dividend payments have increased, but Carnival only paid a dividend in the past 9 years.
Current Payout to shareholders
What portion of Carnival's earnings are paid to the shareholders as a dividend.
  • Dividends paid are well covered by earnings (2.2x coverage).
Future Payout to shareholders
  • Dividends after 3 years are expected to be covered by earnings (1.9x coverage).
X
Income/ dividend checks
We assess Carnival's dividend by checking for:
  1. Firstly is the company paying a notable dividend (greater than 1.1%) - if not then the rest of the checks are ignored.
  2. Is current dividend yield above the bottom 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  3. Is current dividend yield above the top 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  4. Have they paid a dividend for 10 years, and during this period has the dividend been volatile (drop of more than 25%)? (1 check)
  5. If they have paid a dividend for 10 years has it increased in this time? (1 check)
  6. How sustainable is the dividend, can Carnival afford to pay it from its earnings today and in 3 years (Payout ratio less than 90%)? (2 checks)
  7. Carnival has a total score of 3/6, see the detailed checks below.


Full details on the Dividends part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Management

 What is the CEO of Carnival's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have been around for and insider trading.
CEO
Arnold Donald
COMPENSATION $13,506,884
AGE 63
TENURE AS CEO 5.9 years
CEO Bio

Mr. Arnold W. Donald has been President and Chief Executive Officer of Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc since 2013. Mr. Donald is Director of Bank of America Corporation since January 23, 2013. Mr. Donald is Director of Bank of America California, National Association since 2014 and Bank of America, National Association. He is Global Chair of Cruise Lines International Association, Inc. since January 1, 2017 and it’s Director since January 1, 2017. He is Director of BJC Health System, Inc., Global Velocity, Inc., DHR International, Inc., Donald Danforth Plant Science Center and trustee of Dillard University. He served as an Independent Director of Crown Holdings, Inc. since 1999 until April 25, 2019. He serves as an Independent Director at Russell Brands, LLC since June 2004. He is Executive Advisor partner of Wind Point Advisors, LLC. He is Operating Partner and Director of Atlas FRM LLC. He was President and Chief Executive Officer of The Executive Leadership Council, a professional network of African-American executives of major U.S. companies, from 2010 to 2012. He previously served as President and Chief Executive Officer of the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation International from 2006 to 2008. From 2000 to 2005, Mr. Donald was the Chairman of the Board of Merisant Company, a manufacturer and marketer of tabletop sweetener products, including the Equal® and Canderel® brands. He has served as a Director of Carnival Plc. and Carnival Corporation since 2001 and 2001 respectively. From 2000 to 2003, he was also the Chief Executive Officer of Merisant Company. From 1998 to 2000, he was Senior Vice-President of Monsanto Company, a company which develops agricultural products and consumer goods, and President of its nutrition and consumer sector. Prior to that he was President of Monsanto Company’s agricultural sector. He previously served as a Director of Oil-Dri Corporation of America from 1997 to 2013 and The Laclede Group, Inc. from 2003 to 2014. Mr. Donald received a BA degree in Economics from Carleton College in 1976, a BS degree in mechanical engineering from Washington University in St. Louis in 1977 and an MBA from the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business in 1980.

CEO Compensation
  • Arnold's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year, both up more than 20%.
  • Arnold's remuneration is higher than average for companies of similar size in United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Management Team Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Carnival management team in years:

6.9
Average Tenure
60
Average Age
  • The average tenure for the Carnival management team is over 5 years, this suggests they are a seasoned and experienced team.
Management Team

Arnold Donald

TITLE
CEO, President & Director
COMPENSATION
$14M
AGE
63
TENURE
5.9 yrs

David Bernstein

TITLE
CFO & Chief Accounting Officer
COMPENSATION
$5M
AGE
60
TENURE
11.9 yrs

Arnaldo Perez

TITLE
Company Secretary & General Counsel
COMPENSATION
$2M
AGE
58
TENURE
24.4 yrs

Stein Kruse

TITLE
Group Chief Executive Officer of Holland America Group & Carnival UK
COMPENSATION
$6M
AGE
59
TENURE
6.4 yrs

Michael Thamm

TITLE
Group Chief Executive Officer of Costa Group & Carnival Asia
COMPENSATION
$5M
AGE
54
TENURE
6.9 yrs

Alan Buckelew

TITLE
Chief Information Officer
COMPENSATION
$5M
AGE
69
TENURE
2.5 yrs

Beth Roberts

TITLE
Senior Vice President of Investor Relations

Roger Frizzell

TITLE
Chief Communications Officer & Senior VP of Corporate Communications
TENURE
6 yrs

Jerry Montgomery

TITLE
Chief Human Resources Officer
AGE
61
TENURE
8.3 yrs

Bo-Erik Blomqvist

TITLE
Senior Vice President of Corporate Shipbuilding
TENURE
11.3 yrs
Board of Directors Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Carnival board of directors in years:

13.7
Average Tenure
65.5
Average Age
  • The average tenure for the Carnival board of directors is over 10 years, this suggests they are a seasoned and experienced board.
Board of Directors

Micky Arison

TITLE
Chairman of the Board
COMPENSATION
$1M
AGE
68
TENURE
29.4 yrs

Arnold Donald

TITLE
CEO, President & Director
COMPENSATION
$14M
AGE
63
TENURE
18.4 yrs

David Dingle

TITLE
Chairman of Carnival UK
AGE
60
TENURE
5.4 yrs

Stuart Subotnick

TITLE
Director
COMPENSATION
$303K
AGE
76
TENURE
16.2 yrs

Richard Glasier

TITLE
Director
COMPENSATION
$323K
AGE
72
TENURE
14.9 yrs

Randy Weisenburger

TITLE
Senior Independent & Presiding Director
COMPENSATION
$340K
AGE
60
TENURE
1.9 yrs

Jonathon Band

TITLE
Director
COMPENSATION
$320K
AGE
68
TENURE
9.2 yrs

John Parker

TITLE
Director
COMPENSATION
$290K
AGE
76
TENURE
18.7 yrs

Laura Weil

TITLE
Director
COMPENSATION
$285K
AGE
61
TENURE
12.4 yrs

Debra Kelly-Ennis

TITLE
Director
COMPENSATION
$294K
AGE
61
TENURE
7.2 yrs
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
  • No 3 month insider trading information.
Recent Insider Transactions
Announced Type Name Entity Role Start End Shares Max Price (£) Value (£)
15. Jan 19 Sell Arnaldo Perez Individual 11. Jan 19 11. Jan 19 -2,290 £40.75 £-93,319
17. Oct 18 Sell Michael Thamm Individual 15. Oct 18 15. Oct 18 -46,290 £43.31 £-2,004,610
X
Management checks
We assess Carnival's management by checking for:
  1. Is the CEO's compensation unreasonable compared to market cap? (1 check)
  2. Has the CEO's compensation increased more than 20% whilst the EPS is down more then 20%? (1 check)
  3. Is the average tenure of the management team less than 2 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the average tenure of the board of directors team less than 3 years? (1 check)
  5. Carnival has a total score of 0/6, this is not included on the snowflake, see the detailed checks below.


Note: We use the top 6 management executives and board members in our calculations.

Note 2: Insider trading include any internal stakeholders and these transactions .

Full details on the Management part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

News

Simply Wall St News

Is Carnival plc's (LON:CCL) P/E Ratio Really That Good?

We'll look at Carnival plc's (LON:CCL) P/E ratio and reflect on what it tells us about the company's share price. … The formula for P/E is: Price to Earnings Ratio = Price per Share (in the reporting currency) ÷ Earnings per Share (EPS) Or for Carnival: P/E of 11.59 = $51.06 (Note: this is the share price in the reporting currency, namely, USD ) ÷ $4.41 (Based on the year to February 2019.) Is A High P/E Ratio Good? … If the reality for a company is not as bad as the P/E ratio indicates, then the share price should increase as the market realizes this.

Simply Wall St -

Is Carnival plc (LON:CCL) Trading At A 32% Discount?

We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. … A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value: 10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Levered FCF ($, Millions) $643.00 $1.63k $3.28k $3.65k $3.94k $4.17k $4.36k $4.51k $4.64k $4.75k Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 7.86% Est @ 5.87% Est @ 4.48% Est @ 3.5% Est @ 2.82% Est @ 2.34% Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.59% $592.13 $1.38k $2.56k $2.63k $2.61k $2.54k $2.45k $2.33k $2.21k $2.08k Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= $21.39b "Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. … LSE:CCL Intrinsic value, June 3rd 2019 The assumptions We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows.

Simply Wall St -

Is Carnival plc's (LON:CCL) Stock Available For A Good Price After Accounting For Growth?

Carnival plc (LON:CCL) is considered a high-growth stock, but its last closing price of £39.25 left some investors wondering if this high future earnings potential can be rationalized by its current price tag. … But, to properly examine the value of a high-growth stock such as Carnival, we must reflect its earnings growth into the valuation. … A PE ratio of 11.3x and expected year-on-year earnings growth of 11% give Carnival an acceptable PEG ratio of 1.05x.

Simply Wall St -

Are Insiders Selling Carnival plc (LON:CCL) Stock?

So we'll take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in Carnival plc (LON:CCL). … But logic dictates you should pay some attention to whether insiders are buying or selling shares. … Check out our latest analysis for Carnival The Last 12 Months Of Insider Transactions At Carnival In the last twelve months, the biggest single sale by an insider was when the Group Chief Executive Officer of Costa Group &amp; Carnival Asia, Michael Thamm, sold UK£2.0m worth of shares at a price of UK£43.31 per share.

Simply Wall St -

What Kind Of Shareholder Appears On The Carnival plc's (LON:CCL) Shareholder Register?

Insiders often own a large chunk of younger, smaller, companies while huge companies tend to have institutions as shareholders. … We also tend to see lower insider ownership in companies that were previously publicly owned. … institutions own shares in the company.

Simply Wall St -

Carnival plc (LON:CCL) Is Yielding 3.9% - But Is It A Buy?

Dividend paying stocks like Carnival plc (LON:CCL) tend to be popular with investors, and for good reason - some research shows that a significant amount of all stock market returns come from reinvested dividends.. … With a nine-year payment history and a 3.9% yield, many investors probably find Carnival intriguing.! … Before you buy any stock for its dividend however, you should always remember Warren Buffett's two rules: 1) Don't lose money, and 2) Remember rule #1

Simply Wall St -

What You Must Know About Carnival plc's (LON:CCL) Financial Strength

the key to extending previous success is in the health of the company’s financials. … I will provide an overview of Carnival’s financial liquidity and leverage to give you an idea of Carnival’s position to take advantage of potential acquisitions or comfortably endure future downturns. … Note that this information is centred entirely on financial health and is a high-level overview, so I encourage you to look further

Simply Wall St -

Top Bear Market Investment: Carnival plc (LON:CCL)

When stock prices are falling, the best mindset to have is a long term one. … High quality stocks such as Carnival plc has fared well over time in a fickle stock market, which is why I want to bring it into light amongst all the chaos. … Below I take a look at three key features of what makes a robust defensive stock investment: its size, financial health and track record.

Simply Wall St -

Have Insiders Been Selling Carnival plc (LON:CCL) Shares?

So before you buy or sell Carnival plc (LON:CCL), you may well want to know whether insiders have been buying or selling. … But logic dictates you should pay some attention to whether insiders are buying or selling shares. … All up, insiders sold more shares in Carnival than they bought, over the last year.

Simply Wall St -

Can Carnival plc's (LON:CCL) ROE Continue To Surpass The Industry Average?

With that in mind, this article will work through how we can use Return On Equity (ROE) to better understand a business. … Our data shows Carnival has a return on equity of 13% for the last year. … Return on Equity = Net Profit ÷ Shareholders' Equity

Simply Wall St -

Company Info

Description

Carnival plc operates as a leisure travel company in North America, Australia, Europe, and Asia. It operates in four segments: North America and Australia Cruise Operations, Europe and Asia Cruise Operations, Cruise Support, and Tour and Other. The company operates cruises under the Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), Seabourn, Costa, AIDA, P&O Cruises (UK), and Cunard brand names. It also owns Holland America Princess Alaska Tours, a tour company in Alaska; and the Canadian Yukon, which owns and operates hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars, and motor coaches. In addition, the company is involved in the lease of cruise ships. It sells its cruises primarily through travel agents and tour operators. Carnival plc was founded in 1850 and is based in Southampton, the United Kingdom.

Details
Name: Carnival plc
CCL
Exchange: LSE
Founded: 1850
£27,854,986,552
690,676,582
Website: http://www.carnivalplc.com
Address: Carnival plc
Carnival House,
100 Harbour Parade,
Southampton,
Hampshire, SO15 1ST,
United Kingdom
Listings
Exchange Symbol Ticker Symbol Security Exchange Country Currency Listed on
LSE CCL PLC Ordinary Shares London Stock Exchange GB GBP 23. Oct 2000
OTCPK CUKP.F PLC Ordinary Shares Pink Sheets LLC US USD 23. Oct 2000
DB POH1 PLC Ordinary Shares Deutsche Boerse AG DE EUR 23. Oct 2000
BMV CCL N PLC Ordinary Shares Bolsa Mexicana de Valores MX MXN 23. Oct 2000
BATS-CHIXE CCLL PLC Ordinary Shares BATS 'Chi-X Europe' GB GBP 23. Oct 2000
NYSE CUK ADR New York Stock Exchange US USD 23. Oct 2000
DB POH3 ADR Deutsche Boerse AG DE EUR 23. Oct 2000
Number of employees
Current staff
Staff numbers
102,000
Carnival employees.
Industry
Hotels, Resorts and Cruise Lines
Consumer Services
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
Area Date (UTC time)
Company Analysis updated: 2019/06/15 20:42
End of day share price update: 2019/06/14 00:00
Last estimates confirmation: 2019/06/13
Last earnings filing: 2019/04/09
Last earnings reported: 2019/02/28
Last annual earnings reported: 2018/11/30


All dates and times in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.