Is There Now An Opportunity In Serco Group plc (LON:SRP)?

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Serco Group plc (LON:SRP), which is in the commercial services business, and is based in United Kingdom, saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the LSE. As a mid-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Serco Group’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

View our latest analysis for Serco Group

What’s the opportunity in Serco Group?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 14.14% above my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Serco Group today, you’d be paying a relatively reasonable price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is £1.22, there’s only an insignificant downside when the price falls to its real value. In addition to this, Serco Group has a low beta, which suggests its share price is less volatile than the wider market.

Can we expect growth from Serco Group?

LSE:SRP Past and Future Earnings, July 8th 2019
LSE:SRP Past and Future Earnings, July 8th 2019

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Serco Group’s earnings over the next few years are expected to increase by 72%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has already priced in SRP’s positive outlook, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuates below the true value?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on SRP, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for the company, which means it’s worth further examining other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on Serco Group. You can find everything you need to know about Serco Group in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in Serco Group, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.