Judges Scientific (AIM:JDG) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of JDG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

JDG (£73.4) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (£89.29)

JDG fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	1/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	0/6

JDG Stock Overview

Judges Scientific plc designs, manufactures, and sells scientific instruments.

Rewards

Trading at 17.8% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 16.38% per year

Earnings have grown 26.8% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

No risks detected for JDG from our risk checks.

Judges Scientific Competitors

London Security

AIM:LSC

UK£423.0m

Porvair

LSE:PRV

UK£272.5m

Morgan Advanced Materials

LSE:MGAM

UK£785.3m

Vesuvius

LSE:VSVS

UK£822.3m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Judges Scientific
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	UK£73.40
52 Week High	UK£88.00
52 Week Low	UK£58.00
Beta	1.07
1 Month Change	-12.20%
3 Month Change	9.55%
1 Year Change	22.33%
3 Year Change	107.35%
5 Year Change	310.06%
Change since IPO	6,603.20%

Shareholder Returns

	JDG	GB Machinery	GB Market
7D	7.0%	-0.1%	-1.1%
1Y	22.3%	-27.8%	-9.7%

Return vs Industry: JDG exceeded the UK Machinery industry which returned -27.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: JDG exceeded the UK Market which returned -9.7% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is JDG's price volatile compared to industry and market?
JDG volatility
JDG Average Weekly Movement	7.0%
Machinery Industry Average Movement	4.9%
Market Average Movement	5.4%
10% most volatile stocks in GB Market	10.6%
10% least volatile stocks in GB Market	2.8%

Stable Share Price: JDG is not significantly more volatile than the rest of UK stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: JDG's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2002	519	David Cicurel	https://www.judges.uk.com

Judges Scientific plc designs, manufactures, and sells scientific instruments. The company operates through two segments, Materials Sciences and Vacuum. It offers engineering teaching and research equipment for universities, colleges, schools, and research centers; and research and development systems for food, beverage, dairy, edible oil, and pharmaceutical industries.

Judges Scientific Fundamentals Summary

How do Judges Scientific's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
JDG fundamental statistics
Market Cap	UK£466.41m
Earnings (TTM)	UK£12.68m
Revenue (TTM)	UK£91.29m

36.8x

P/E Ratio

5.1x

P/S Ratio

Is JDG overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
JDG income statement (TTM)
Revenue	UK£91.29m
Cost of Revenue	UK£33.88m
Gross Profit	UK£57.41m
Other Expenses	UK£44.73m
Earnings	UK£12.68m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

Sep 22, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	2.00
Gross Margin	62.88%
Net Profit Margin	13.89%
Debt/Equity Ratio	39.2%

How did JDG perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.9%

Current Dividend Yield

33%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is JDG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for JDG?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for JDG. This is calculated by dividing JDG's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is JDG's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	UK£466.41m

JDG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	5.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	24.9x
PEG Ratio	2.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does JDG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

JDG PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for JDG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	15.9x
LSC London Security	21.2x	n/a	UK£423.0m
PRV Porvair	22.8x	5.5%	UK£272.5m
MGAM Morgan Advanced Materials	11.5x	9.5%	UK£785.3m
VSVS Vesuvius	8.1x	9.3%	UK£822.3m
JDG Judges Scientific	36.8x	16.4%	UK£466.4m

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: JDG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36.8x) compared to the peer average (15.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does JDG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Machinery Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: JDG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36.8x) compared to the UK Machinery industry average (16.8x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is JDG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

JDG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	36.8x
Fair PE Ratio	22.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: JDG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.9x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of JDG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: JDG (£73.4) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£89.29)

Significantly Below Fair Value: JDG is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: JDG is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (2.2x)

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Future Growth

How is Judges Scientific forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

16.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: JDG's forecast earnings growth (16.4% per year) is above the savings rate (0.9%).

Earnings vs Market: JDG's earnings (16.4% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the UK market (11% per year).

High Growth Earnings: JDG's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: JDG's revenue (11% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (4.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: JDG's revenue (11% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if JDG's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has Judges Scientific performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

26.8%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: JDG has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: JDG's current net profit margins (13.9%) are higher than last year (10.3%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: JDG's earnings have grown significantly by 26.8% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: JDG's earnings growth over the past year (54.3%) exceeds its 5-year average (26.8% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: JDG earnings growth over the past year (54.3%) underperformed the Machinery industry 54.3%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: JDG's Return on Equity (29.7%) is considered high.

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Financial Health

How is Judges Scientific's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: JDG's short term assets (£49.7M) exceed its short term liabilities (£26.6M).

Long Term Liabilities: JDG's short term assets (£49.7M) exceed its long term liabilities (£18.9M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: JDG has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: JDG's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 72.5% to 39.2% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: JDG's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (102.3%).

Interest Coverage: JDG's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (21.4x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Judges Scientific current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

0.90%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: JDG's dividend (0.9%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (1.89%).

High Dividend: JDG's dividend (0.9%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (5.29%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: JDG is not paying a notable dividend for the UK market, therefore no need to check if payments are stable.

Growing Dividend: JDG is not paying a notable dividend for the UK market, therefore no need to check if payments are increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: JDG is not paying a notable dividend for the UK market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: JDG is not paying a notable dividend for the UK market.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

10.5yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

David Cicurel (73 yo)

no data

Tenure

UK£255,000

Compensation

Mr. David Elie Cicurel serves as the Chief Executive Officer of Judges Scientific plc and Judges Capital Plc. He is also Executive Director of Judges Scientific plc since December 24, 2002. Mr. Cicurel is...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: David's total compensation ($USD306.77K) is below average for companies of similar size in the UK market ($USD1.06M).

Compensation vs Earnings: David's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: JDG's management team is seasoned and experienced (10.5 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: JDG's board of directors are considered experienced (7.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/03 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/01 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31