Did You Manage To Avoid Alumasc Group's (LON:ALU) 36% Share Price Drop?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
March 19, 2019
AIM:ALU

For many investors, the main point of stock picking is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. We regret to report that long term The Alumasc Group plc (LON:ALU) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 36% in three years, versus a market return of about 30%. It's down 4.3% in the last seven days.

Check out our latest analysis for Alumasc Group

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Alumasc Group saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 26% per year, over the last three years. In comparison the 14% compound annual share price decline isn't as bad as the EPS drop-off. So the market may not be too worried about the EPS figure, at the moment -- or it may have previously priced some of the drop in.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

LSE:ALU Past and Future Earnings, March 19th 2019
LSE:ALU Past and Future Earnings, March 19th 2019

This free interactive report on Alumasc Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Alumasc Group the TSR over the last 3 years was -27%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Alumasc Group had a tough year, with a total loss of 7.5% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 5.2%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 1.5% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. If you would like to research Alumasc Group in more detail then you might want to take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in the company.

Of course Alumasc Group may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this freecollection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.

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