Is Alstom (EPA:ALO) A Risky Investment?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
June 26, 2021
ENXTPA:ALO
Source: Shutterstock

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Alstom SA (EPA:ALO) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Alstom

How Much Debt Does Alstom Carry?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2021 Alstom had debt of €2.18b, up from €1.04b in one year. However, it does have €1.25b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about €927.0m.

debt-equity-history-analysis
ENXTPA:ALO Debt to Equity History June 27th 2021

A Look At Alstom's Liabilities

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Alstom had liabilities of €15.4b due within 12 months and liabilities of €4.00b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of €1.25b as well as receivables valued at €5.88b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total €12.3b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This deficit is considerable relative to its very significant market capitalization of €16.1b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Alstom's use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Alstom has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 1.3. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 14.9 times over. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. In fact Alstom's saving grace is its low debt levels, because its EBIT has tanked 28% in the last twelve months. When a company sees its earnings tank, it can sometimes find its relationships with its lenders turn sour. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Alstom's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Alstom burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

Our View

On the face of it, Alstom's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it's pretty decent at covering its interest expense with its EBIT; that's encouraging. Overall, it seems to us that Alstom's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that Alstom is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those can't be ignored...

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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