Nokia (HLSE:NOKIA): Exploring Valuation After Recent Share Price Momentum

Nokia Oyj (HLSE:NOKIA) shares have experienced a combination of short-term dips and longer-term gains. The stock has climbed about 42% over the past 3 months. Investors are watching to see if this momentum continues.

See our latest analysis for Nokia Oyj.

Nokia Oyj’s momentum has picked up sharply, with a 41.6% share price return over the past three months, even as investors digest recent swings. While the one-month share price return dipped slightly, the strong 12-month total shareholder return of 36.2% shows that longer-term holders have been well rewarded and the company’s growth signals are building rather than fading.

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Recent gains have investors wondering whether Nokia Oyj’s current valuation leaves room for upside. Is the share price still undervalued compared to fundamentals, or has the market already priced in future growth potential?

Most Popular Narrative: 1.5% Undervalued

Nokia Oyj’s most widely followed valuation narrative places its fair value at €5.39, which is just above the last close price of €5.31. Small variations could have a meaningful impact, and what is driving this outlook is detailed in the commentary below.

Strong demand from hyperscalers (cloud/AI data centers) and U.S./European infrastructure stimulus is expanding Nokia's addressable market for high-capacity network equipment, supporting future top-line growth. Ongoing global build-out of fiber and advanced 5G/6G networks, accelerated by regulatory programs and large CSP capex, provides a multi-year runway for increased product and service revenues, particularly in Fixed and Optical Networks.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious why the fair value is nudging higher? Some bold projections about future growth, margins, and a changing revenue mix could tip Nokia’s narrative in an unexpected direction. Which of these numbers carries the most weight in this finely balanced call? Get all the specifics and see how they add up for yourself.

Result: Fair Value of €5.39 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent challenges in mobile networks and unpredictable currency swings could undermine profitability and limit Nokia’s long-term growth momentum.

Find out about the key risks to this Nokia Oyj narrative.

Another View: Looking Beyond the Surface

While the prevailing story sees Nokia as slightly undervalued, our DCF model takes a more cautious stance. It estimates fair value at just €1.99, which is well below the current share price of €5.28. This suggests investors may be banking on more optimistic growth than the DCF assumptions allow. Does this disconnect point to overlooked upside, or are risks being underestimated?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Build Your Own Nokia Oyj Narrative

If you see things differently or would rather dive into the numbers yourself, it’s easy to craft your own view on Nokia Oyj in just minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Nokia Oyj research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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