Here's Why We Think KONE Oyj's (HEL:KNEBV) Statutory Earnings Might Be Conservative

By
Simply Wall St
Published
November 05, 2020
HLSE:KNEBV

As a general rule, we think profitable companies are less risky than companies that lose money. That said, the current statutory profit is not always a good guide to a company's underlying profitability. In this article, we'll look at how useful this year's statutory profit is, when analysing KONE Oyj (HEL:KNEBV).

We like the fact that KONE Oyj made a profit of €936.0m on its revenue of €10.0b, in the last year. The chart below shows how it has grown revenue over the last three years, but that profit has declined.

View our latest analysis for KONE Oyj

earnings-and-revenue-history
HLSE:KNEBV Earnings and Revenue History November 6th 2020

Importantly, statutory profits are not always the best tool for understanding a company's true earnings power, so it's well worth examining profits in a little more detail. As a result, we think it's well worth considering what KONE Oyj's cashflow (when compared to its earnings) can tell us about the nature of its statutory profit. That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

A Closer Look At KONE Oyj's Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

KONE Oyj has an accrual ratio of -0.61 for the year to September 2020. That implies it has very good cash conversion, and that its earnings in the last year actually significantly understate its free cash flow. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of €1.5b, well over the €936.0m it reported in profit. KONE Oyj shareholders are no doubt pleased that free cash flow improved over the last twelve months.

Our Take On KONE Oyj's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, KONE Oyj's accrual ratio indicates strong conversion of profit to free cash flow, which is a positive for the company. Because of this, we think KONE Oyj's underlying earnings potential is as good as, or possibly even better, than the statutory profit makes it seem! And on top of that, its earnings per share increased by 6.4% in the last year. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing KONE Oyj at this point in time. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 1 warning sign with KONE Oyj, and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of KONE Oyj's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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