Did Changing Sentiment Drive Nokian Renkaat Oyj's (HEL:TYRES) Share Price Down By 30%?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
September 04, 2019
HLSE:TYRES

The simplest way to benefit from a rising market is to buy an index fund. When you buy individual stocks, you can make higher profits, but you also face the risk of under-performance. Unfortunately the Nokian Renkaat Oyj (HEL:TYRES) share price slid 30% over twelve months. That contrasts poorly with the market return of 0.3%. Zooming out, the stock is down 26% in the last three years.

View our latest analysis for Nokian Renkaat Oyj

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the unfortunate twelve months during which the Nokian Renkaat Oyj share price fell, it actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 79%. It's quite possible that growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past. The divergence between the EPS and the share price is quite notable, during the year. But we might find some different metrics explain the share price movements better.

We don't see any weakness in the Nokian Renkaat Oyj's dividend so the steady payout can't really explain the share price drop. From what we can see, revenue is pretty flat, so that doesn't really explain the share price drop. Of course, it could simply be that it simply fell short of the market consensus expectations.

HLSE:TYRES Income Statement, September 5th 2019
HLSE:TYRES Income Statement, September 5th 2019

Nokian Renkaat Oyj is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Nokian Renkaat Oyj's TSR for the last year was -26%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Nokian Renkaat Oyj had a tough year, with a total loss of 26% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 0.3%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 4.5%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. Before forming an opinion on Nokian Renkaat Oyj you might want to consider the cold hard cash it pays as a dividend. This free chart tracks its dividend over time.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on FI exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.

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