Is Almirall (BME:ALM) Still Undervalued After Its Recent Share Price Gains

Recent share performance and what it might mean for investors

Almirall (BME:ALM) has caught investor attention after a recent move in its share price, with a 2.4% gain over the past day and a 3.2% rise over the past week.

Over the past month, the stock shows a 6.5% return, while the past 3 months reflect a 3.5% decline. This gives investors a mixed short term picture to weigh against longer term performance.

See our latest analysis for Almirall.

Zooming out, the recent strength in the share price comes after a mixed year in which the year-to-date share price return is modestly negative, yet the 1 year total shareholder return of 41.12% points to strong overall gains when dividends are included.

If you want to see what else is moving in healthcare and biotech, it can be useful to compare Almirall with other names using our screener for 125 healthcare AI stocks

With the shares up strongly over 1 and 3 years but still trading at a discount to both analyst targets and some intrinsic estimates, you have to ask: is Almirall undervalued, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 8.5% Undervalued

Almirall's most followed narrative points to a fair value of €13.91 per share, versus the latest close at €12.72, framing the current debate around upside potential.

Strong and sustained expansion of the dermatology portfolio (notably Ebglyss and Ilumetri) is supported by growing prevalence of chronic skin and autoimmune diseases due to demographic shifts; aggressive pipeline launches and label expansions are expected to drive double-digit net sales growth through 2030.

Market tailwinds from increasing healthcare spending and high unmet therapeutic need in dermatology are facilitating favorable reimbursement, premium pricing, and rapid adoption of new therapies like Ebglyss and Ilumetri, elevating revenue growth beyond past trends. Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what sits behind that price gap? The narrative leans heavily on faster top line expansion, improving margins and a richer earnings profile. Curious which specific growth and profitability assumptions have been baked into that €13.91 view and how sensitive the story is to them? The full narrative breaks down the moving parts in detail.

Result: Fair Value of €13.91 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, there is still meaningful risk if key dermatology products underperform against expectations, or if higher biologics costs and pricing pressure squeeze the profit margins analysts are assuming.

Find out about the key risks to this Almirall narrative.

Another View: Market Ratios Tell a Different Story

While the narrative and fair value models suggest Almirall may be 8.5% undervalued, the current P/E of 59.2x paints a tougher picture. It sits well above the European pharmaceuticals average of 20.9x, the peer average of 31.8x, and even the fair ratio of 30.5x that the market could move towards over time.

In practice, that gap means a lot of future earnings growth is already reflected in the price, so any disappointment on profits or margins could have a sharper impact on returns than the DCF style upside might imply. Which signal do you trust more: the cash flow model or the market multiple?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

Mixed signals or quiet opportunity, either way this is the moment to look through the charts, check the assumptions and weigh the 3 key rewards.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Almirall has sparked your interest, do not stop here. A broader watchlist can help you spot opportunities you might otherwise miss.

• Prioritise quality by scanning companies with strong finances and clean balance sheets using the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (387 results).
• Hunt for potential mispricings by checking our list of 242 high quality undervalued stocks before markets fully respond.
• Strengthen your income focus by reviewing our hand picked 480 dividend fortresses that aim to combine yield with resilience.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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